Everton vs. Burnley Free Premier League Soccer Pick

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, April 15, 2015 11:07 PM GMT

Wednesday, Apr. 15, 2015 11:07 PM GMT

Burnley has just 1 road win and 5 victories all season, so if the Clarets are going to stave off relegation, they need to start here in Liverpool with a win and three points over host Everton. But with Fear driving the visitors, is looking at the Total (Goals) here maybe a bit better place to find a logical and profitable pick?

Odds Overview
Everton vs. Burnley, Saturday, (Premier League Extra Time/NBC Sports Live Extra (US), 15:00 CEST/10 a.m. ET/7 a.m. PT):
Despite potential relegation, 19th-place Burnley (5-11-16, 26 GF-50) has played as hard as it possibly can, as last week’s 1-0 loss to red-hot and now 2nd-place Arsenal shows. Here on Saturday in Liverpool at Goodison Park against 12th-place Everton (9-11-12, 40 GF-43 GA) in this Week 32 English Premier League fixture, expect the Clarets to again fight for their Top Fight lives against the Toffees, but there is only so much some clubs can do with mediocre rosters and financial realities can do.

Soccer odds makers have made hosts Everton solid -150 favorites with Burnley big +400 underdogs and the Draw priced at +275 (bet365). The Total (Goals) in this game has been set at 2½ Over -117 (Under -105, bet365) while the Both Teams To Score prop has the ‘Yes’ priced at -125 and the ‘No’ at -110 (bet365). Some other Prop wagers on the Oddschecker screen and available at select European and Offshore sportsbooks: Asian Handicap: Everton -0.5 -153, Everton -0.75 -111, Everton -1 +114 (bet365); First Goalscorer: Romelu Lukaku +350, Arouna Koné +400, Kevin Mirallas +550 (William Hill); Last Goalscorer: Romelu Lukaku +450 (Paddy Power); Draw No Bet: Everton -400, Burnley +275 (bet365); and, To Win To Nil In First Half: Everton +150, Burnley +450 (Paddy Power). When these two clubs played earlier this season in Week 9 at Turf Moor, Everton won 3-1. This will be the first meeting here at Goodison Park since the 2009/2010 English Premier League season.

 

Burnley FC
Burnley (1-5-9 Away, 12 GF-30 GA) and manager Sam Dyche still sit firmly in 19th place in the Premier League standings, but with an upset win here and 3 points, the Clarets (26 points) can lift themselves out of the Relegation Zone should Liverpool beat now 17th-place Hull City (28 points) on Saturday at KC Stadium at Kingston upon Hull. So, expect Burnley to be motivated as they were in their aforementioned Week 31 game against Arsenal. On the attack, the Clarets rely very heavily on Danny Ings (9 goals, Anytime Goalscorer +210, William Hill), Ashley Barnes (5 goals, +300), Sam Vokes (+300), George Boyd (4 goals, +340), strikers Lukas Jutkiewicz (+300) and Marvin Sordell (+340) as well as role players Scott Arfield (+650), Ross Wallace (+650), Michael Kightly (+500) and Ben Mee (+1200). Heading into this fixture this weekend, Burnley and GK Tom Heaton have allowed 50 goals though so far this EPL season, the third-worst total in the league behind 18th-place QPR (59), 20th-place Leicester City (51) and 13th-place Newcastle United (51), so defense has been a big issue with this recently promoted club. But against a choppy Everton side, expect Burnley to D-up as it did against the Gunners as they continue to try to fight for their Premier League lives.

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Everton FC
Everton (5-7-3 Home, 23 GF-18 GA) seems to play either up or down to the level of its opponents this season, and manager Roberto Martínez should shoulder most of the blame for that reality. The Toffees (34 points) don’t have to fear being relegated like their opponents here Burnley do, and the good news for Martínez and Everton is that star 21-year-old striker Romelu Lukaku (18 goals overall, 8 goals EPL, -110 Anytime Goalscorer, bet365), is reportedly returning from a hamstring injury which sidelined the young Belgian for 2 games for this encounter. Besides the prolific Lukaku, the Toffees also look to Steven Naismith (6 goals, +120), Kevin Mirallas (5 goals, +145) and Koné (+100) for scoring. Everton also has a decent number of extremely dependable role players like Aaron Lennon (2 goals, +190), Ross Barkley (2 goals, +145), Leighton Baines (2 goals, +280) and Phil Jagielka (3 goals, +450). This team, which was recently eliminated from the UEFA Europa League, should be at least a little bit higher in the table than it presently is with all the talent it has, including American GK Tim Howard. Maybe last year was the recent, relative peak for the Toffees.

 

Series Trends and Best Betting Approaches
Everton is 42-28-19 lifetime (161 GF-142 GA) against Burnley and 27-14-8 (96 GF-59 GA) here at Home at Goodison Park against the Clarets in Premier League play. The last time these two played here was back in the 2009/2010 season when Everton registered a 2-0 clean sheet win. When there two met at Turf Moor in Week 9 earlier this season, Everton won 3-1 after jumping out to a 2-1 halftime lead. But this one should be played much closer to the vest by both sides, with Burnley desperately needing win (and the 3 points) and pretty much being in a position where they have to just Go For It with just 7 games left on the schedule (Tick, tick, tick) and host Everton scared to death to lose to the lowly Clarets on their own home soil.

The Toffees have won the L3 meetings between these two clubs, outscoring Burnley by a 6-1 margin, but this one feels like it will be low-scoring and close (and potentially boring) affair, with the Clarets possibly hitting the double-digit mark in Road Goals (10) with a rare (nervous) tally—maybe from Ings or Barnes— and Everton then rallying (and possibly settling) for the tie, knowing that where it currently sits in the table (12th), it doesn’t really have to stress too much about trying to qualify for the Europa League again (18 points away from 6th) or worry too much about potential relegation (12 points away from 18th). Or, pretty much the same area of the table in which clubs like Stoke City (10th Place), Newcastle United (13th place) and West Ham United (9th) pretty much find themselves in all season long, including the end. But, it’s much better to be consistently average and playing in England’s Top Flight of soccer than to be relegated and be forced to have to rebuild from scratch after all the butter and the syrup on the pancakes has been suddenly taken away from you. Sugar may not be good for you, but it sure sells, Sarah. Or in other words, best do your damndest to stay up in the English Premier League or be prepared to deal with the omnipresent thoughts and fears your club may never be back up there again. (Tears.) Such is the plight of this Burnley team, right now. And that Fear is a great motivating factor and is not something wise bettors like to bet into the teeth of when placing their soccer picks at this particular point in the season.

Predicted Final Score: Everton 1 Burnley 1

Premier League Soccer Picks: Under 2½ -105 (bet365)

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