Europa League Betting: Sevilla vs. Porto

Nila Amerova

Tuesday, April 8, 2014 6:38 PM GMT

Tuesday, Apr. 8, 2014 6:38 PM GMT

Sevilla will attempt to overturn a 1-0 deficit to Porto in the home leg of their quarterfinal decider. Here’s a primer on this clash complete with soccer free picks for your consideration.

Can Sevilla salvage their European campaign?
Sevilla will attempt to salvage their European campaign when they host FC Porto on Thursday, down 1-0 to the visitors after the first leg, a result that fell in line with soccer betting expectations.

Sevilla are flush off a 4-1 victory over Espanyol at the weekend, a result that puts them three points adrift of Athletic Club and keeps them in play for a Top 4 finish. The victory marked their fourth win in their last five domestic fixtures, which includes a statement-making 2-1 victory over Real Madrid on March 26.

Sportsbooks send Sevilla into the reverse leg of this tie as the favourites. Tipped at -120 soccer odds to win outright, Sevilla are very much in this tie. It’s interesting to note however that they are at the significant disadvantage in futures betting markets where they are listed as the +175 underdogs to advance into the semis and the +1600 long shots to win the competition proper.

A 1-0 deficit on the scoreboard isn’t insurmountable by any stretch of the imagination however. Sevilla’s home record is a solid 9-3-4 in league action this season and includes a 5-1-1 record in their last seven engagements across all competitions. As a result they can fancy their chances even if sportsbooks don’t.


Porto ahead but at the disadvantage
Porto are ahead in the tie but at the disadvantage for the reverse leg in Sevilla at rather large +320 odds to win outright, a market price that stands in stark contrast to their favourable futures odds, both to advance into the semis and in the competition proper that are listed at -250 and +550, respectively.

FC Porto’s away record probably explains the hefty odds that are currently trading on the away win at Sevilla. While FC Porto have been strong at home this season their away record leaves much to be desired.

Since a 1-0 defeat to Zenit in Champions League group action, the Portuguese have reeled off a 12-game unbeaten streak and they have gone 18 out of 19 matches across all competitions unbeaten – the only hiccup a 1-0 defeat to Estoril. By contrast, on the road, they’ve been suspect, especially lately where they are without a win in their last five matches across all competitions including two Europa League treks to Eintracht Frankfurt and Napoli that ended on draws.

Soccer Betting Verdict: This tie rests delicately on a 1-0 score that can easily be reversed by the hosts if they rise to the occasion. Indeed, sportsbooks do tip Sevilla as the favourites to win outright at -120 soccer odds. And if the hosts do come through on this market stance convincingly (read: plenty of goals), they could very well turn this tie on its head, proving to be the savvy soccer pick at +175 to advance into the semis when all is said and done. From the start, we liked Sevilla in this matchup and although they didn’t come through for us on our soccer picks in the first leg, we feel strongly about them coming through in the second leg. Not only do they have home advantage and good form but also FC Porto are unconvincing on the road, and that last fact could sway this tie firmly in their favour.

Soccer Free Picks: Sevilla at -120 to win outright; +175 to advance into semis

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