Europa League Betting: Fiorentina vs. Juventus

Mike Richardson

Wednesday, March 19, 2014 3:19 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 19, 2014 3:19 PM UTC

After turning a very tidy profit in the Premier League last weekend your Humble Handicapper looks to Europe and the Europa League for his next big cash out. And the first game that caught his eye was Fiorentina versus Juventus.

This is as good a time as any to take a look at each side's chances of winning this competition according to the sports books. The best soccer odds I can find on Juventus winning the European cup outright is 3/1, and that probably won't surprise you to learn that they are the bookies favourites. Fiorentina run as high as 12/1 at time of press, but that has a lot more to with Juventus being their first stumbling block that would stand in the way of Europa League glory. It's worth noting as well that Juventus of 20/21 to reach the final, which pretty much means victory over Fiorentina is a foregone conclusion.

Enough with the final…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?
Looking at the head to head starts between these two sides there has only been one winner in the last five matches and that has been home side. Generally the home side has come out on top to nil. The odds of Juventus winning to nil at 9/4 while Fiorentina winning without conceding a goal is at 11/2.

But before we get into the nitty-gritty let's have a look at the basics.

The best soccer odds I can find on Juventus winning are at 11/10 while the draw is fancied at 5/2 and Fiorentina winning is at 13/5.

Those are pretty damning odds for Fiorentina, but when you consider that the sports books have the best soccer odds on Juventus  going through at 9/20 and Fiorentina are going through at 31/20 can see why.

Fiorentina have just one win in their last five meetings, although it was their most recent encounter. What's more telling is that they have tied the scores with recent opposition five goals to five. That may look like there's no difference between the two numbers but if you were to take their most recent and only victory out of the equation you'd see that Fiorentina have been outscored by the opposition four goals to 2.

Juventus by comparison are undefeated in their last four and only have their Europa draw with Fiorentina spoiling what would have been a five-game winning run.

Juventus have outscored their recent opponents, in the last five games seven goals to one. And in fact that one goal was in the aforementioned draw and is the only goal conceded by Juventus in their last five games.

Your Humble Handicapper's outlook
I do think that Juventus will rise to the occasion and conform to what the bookies consider to be their form and will take this game. However it will be close and I don't see a huge goal bonanza, the sort of thing you get from Liverpool and Manchester United these days.

I do think Juventus will take the game to Fiorentina and I'm confident enough to back them winning both halves at 9/4. It's also worth mentioning that the bookies have the shortest correct score odds on this game ending drawn 1-1, at 5/1. But they then fancy Juventus winning 1-0, 2-1, 2-0 before they like any Fiorentina win.

You might also want to side bet on the game being drawn on the 45 for Juventus taking it on the 90 9/2 but your Humble Handicapper only sees one winner from this game.

Prediction: Juventus win 2-0 available at best soccer odds of 17/2 with Paddy Power.

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