EURO 2016 is merely a month away but the market opened to trading as soon as the qualifying round completed. We analyse the EURO 2016 Winner odds and Early Betting Trends.
The highly-anticipated EURO 2016 will be hosted by France this summer and features 24 nations from around Europe competing for the coveted Henri Delaunay trophy. Spain enter the competition as two-time defending champions having triumphed in 2008 and 2012. The most recent saw them dismantle Italy 4-0 in the final. Germany, meanwhile, enter the tournament as the World Cup champions. Arguably, the expectations on Die Mannschaft are much higher than those on La Furia Roja by winning the biggest prize imaginable on the soccer stage.
Indeed, immediately following their triumph in Brazil, Germany were installed as the team to beat in early EURO 2016 Winner markets (July 2014), priced at +350 at Pinnacle Sports amongst several other sportsbooks. At the same time, Spain, despite an ignominious exit from Brazil, were installed as the second-best bet at +400 while host nation France opened as the third-best bet at +500.
Through the qualifying round Germany saw its soccer odds shorten steadily until they were down to +325 before the draw ceremony in December 2015. Similarly, France’s odds shortened too, although Les Bleus experienced the most significant cut of the top triplet when their odds whittled down from +500 to +350. Conversely, Spain’s odds swelled from +400 to +600 at various sports betting platforms over the same span.
Table 1: Top Favourites in EURO 2016 Winner Market (July 2014)
Then, the draw was made. The 24-nation field determined. The impact on the EURO 2016 market was swift and immediate.
EURO Group Betting
Group A: France, Switzerland, Romania and Albania
Group B: England, Russia, Wales, Slovakia
Group C: Germany, Poland, Ukraine and Northern Ireland
Group D: Spain, Croatia, Czech Republic and Turkey
Group E: Belgium, Italy, Sweden and Republic of Ireland
Group F: Portugal, Austria, Iceland and Hungary
EURO 2016 Outrights Review
On the heels of the draw bookmakers across sports betting platforms released updated EURO 2016 Winner Odds. Host nation France emerged at the head of the market, priced slightly shorter than defending World Cup Champions Germany and, even, two-time defending EURO champions Spain, thanks largely down to a more favourable draw than the aforementioned pair.
Elsewhere, the trio of England, Belgium and Italy moved in opposite directions. The Three Lions shortened from +1200 to +800 despite a relatively tough draw, while both Belgium and Italy swelled after falling into the same group, albeit the latter more so than the former. Meanwhile, Portugal emerged the real winners according to experts and bettors alike, gaining what appears to be the easiest draw of the entire field in group play. As such, their odds shortened from +2400 to +2200 at most sports betting outlets. A few have gone further, cutting Portugal down to +1600.
Here’s a rundown of the EURO 2016 Winner odds at Pinnacle Sports. Below we review consensus betting polls at this early vantage point.
Table 2: EURO 2016 Winner Odds according to Bet365 (MAY 2016)
|Republic of Ireland||+15000|
Most Popular Bets –Where is the Public Betting?
It might surprise you to learn where early public betting is flowing in EURO 2016 Winner markets. If you’re thinking Germany, Spain or France then you’re way off beam. The answer is…drum roll…England.
The only nation to have won the FIFA World Cup (1966) but not UEFA EURO Cup is –somewhat surprisingly – garnering the most bets in early markets. Is this just optimistic national betting or a real assessment of public perception of the upcoming EURO 20016? (See Chart 1)
Chart 1: Most Popular Bets, May 5, 2016
Hard to say unequivocally, but we’d wager it’s mostly down to nationalism rather than anything tangible at this point in time (which is May 5, 2016. A full month away from the start of the blessed event in France). Of course, Roy Hodgson’s side did qualify for the European showpiece by a running a perfect qualifying campaign: 10-0-0 record in group play. They also defeated Germany in International Friendly action a couple of months ago, which is no mean feat. It’s would be churlish to wrinkle our noses at such results, but, let’s face it, good form is nothing new for the Three Lions. Where they invariably come up short is at the main event – most recently, the World Cup. Until they put together a convincing campaign when it matters most, it’s hard to jump on Three Lions bandwagon.
Clearly, the public is of a different mind pounding the Three Lions on their soccer pick. England hold 23.63% of the market share, which is the biggest slice of the market of any of the seven nations deemed as top contenders to lift the Henri Delaunay trophy. Hosts France come in second with 14.01% of the market share, while, surprisingly, heavyweights Germany come in third with 13.77% of the market.
That Belgium with 10.11% of the market and Wales, even, with 6.02% of the market strike an audible chord amongst bettors apparently is perhaps the most astounding soccer betting trend so far discovered. That said, 32.57% of the market – which is the biggest slice of the market altogether – is split amongst the rest of the field, which, obviously, includes two-time defending champions Spain and last term’s runners-up Italy, amongst several other stalwarts.