EPL Stoke City vs. Tottenham Hotspur: Odds, Preview, Prediction and Picks

Kevin Stott

Friday, May 8, 2015 6:46 PM GMT

Friday, May. 8, 2015 6:46 PM GMT

Tottenham Hotspur starts Week 36 play in the English Premier League in 6th place, just 1 point ahead of Southampton for the last UEFA Europa League spot on the table, but with the game at Stoke-on-Trent, do the Potters have the edge here on Saturday? Let’s take a quick look at this fixture and make a pick.

Odds Overview
Stoke City vs. Tottenham Hotspur, Saturday 15:00 CEST (Premier League Extra Time, NBC Sports Live Extra, Directv (US); 10 a.m. ET/7 a.m. PT): Sixth-place Tottenham Hotspur (17-7-11, 58 GF-50 GA) travels to Stoke-on-Trent on Saturday to face 10th-place Stoke City (13-8-14, 39 GF-44 GA) in a meeting much more significant for spurs who sit just one point ahead of 7th-place Southampton (58-57) heading for the last UEFA Europa League berth in the league into Week 36 action. Soccer odds makers have made Tottenham the favorite in this fixture, with Spurs priced at +160, host Stoke City lined at +190 and the Draw set at +240 (bet365). This is one of those games where any one of the three possible results wouldn’t surprise anyone. The Total Goals in this game is 2½ Under -117 (Over -105, bet365). The Both Teams To Score Prop wager sees the ‘Yes’ lined at -150 and the ‘No’ at +110 (bet365) while the To Win To Nil Prop bet sees Tottenham lined at +320 and Stoke City priced at +375 (William Hill). When these two met back on Nov. 9 11 at White Hart Lane in North London, the Potters upset Spurs, 2-1 as First Half goals by Bojan Krkic and Jonathan Walters gave the visitors a 2-0 lead, and Tottenham’s Nacer Chadli scored a somewhat meaningless goal for the hosts in the 77th minute.

 

Tottenham Hotspur FC
Tottenham Hotspur (8-4-5 Away, 24 GF-24 GA) has really held its own away from home this season, sitting on a 0 GD and having earned 28 precious points in away games—a big reason Spurs and manager Mauricio Pochettino are again in contention for a UEFA Europa League spot this season, a tournament this club has now participated in for the last four seasons. Coming off a loss to Manchester City in its last outing, Tottenham will get Moussa Dembélé (1 goal, Anytime Goalscorer +500, bet365) and Andros Townsend (+333) back but Defenders Kyle Walker and Ben Davies remain out with injuries. Although obviously worn down from Europa League play and travel as well as EPL football Spurs do have a number of talented players who can put the ball in the goal in Harry Kane (20 goals, +167), Christian Eriksen (10 goals, +300) and the aforementioned Chadli (10 goals, +400). So, 40 league goals from three Big Guns, but then, like some others clubs, the drop-off is steep as Tottenham’s next leading scorer (in May) are 2-goal scorers Emmanuel Adebayor (+200), Townsend (+333), Danny Rose (+850), Erik Lamela (+300) and Eric Dier (+1100). One problem for Spurs has been allowing goals, and GK Hugo Lloris and this 6th-place team has allowed 50 goals—more than anyone in the table all the way down to 14th place, so Over bettors take note.

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Stoke City FC
Stoke City (8-3-6 Home, 39 GF-44 GA) and Mark Hughes—who earlier the club signed on this season until the year 2019—begins play in its’ usual 10th place in the standings entering play on Saturday, so as usual, the stress-free Potters don’t have to worry about potential Relegation nor potential European Cup qualification. La-di-da. Stoke City will go into this game with the services of Defender Marc Wilson and Geoff Cameron (hamstring) but Marc Muniesa is expected to return from his hamstring injury he suffered in February. Stoke City is a very average team defensively (44 goals allowed) despite having a fairly solid GK in Asmir Begovic, but this team has now gone 7 straight games without registering a Clean Sheet and have allowed an EPL-high 43% of their goals from Set-Pieces. On the offensive attack, the Potters will look to Senegalese striker Mame Diouf (9 goals, Anytime Goalscorer +200, bet365), Jonathan Walters (7 goals, +225), veteran 33-year-old striker Peter Crouch (7 goals, +200) and Charlie Adam (7 goals, +400) for scoring here, with guys like forward Peter Odemwingie (+250) and Ryan Shawcross (2 goals, +900), also able to pop in the occasional goal. Talented midfielder Krkic (4 goals)—who scored in that first meeting earlier this season—is out for the season after rupturing the Cruciate Ligament in his Knee in a 4-1 win over Rochdale in FA Cup play.

 

Series Trends and Best Betting Approaches
Lifetime in English Premier League play, Tottenham has the edge in this series going 34-15-16 overall (102 GF-67 GA) and 11-8-13 at Britannia Stadium (35 GF-41 GA). In the L10 meetings in league play, Spurs hold a 6-2-2 edge (16-10 goals) with 8 of those 10 meetings going Over the posted Total, including 3 of the L4. The Potters (1-2-4 L7) have won just 6 of their L31 games in EPL play against Tottenham Hotspur and this series has seen its share of emotion with 6 Red Cards being shown in the L6 meetings—another seemingly good thing for Overs—including in the last meeting where Spurs were reduced to 10 men. So, with Tottenham not having kept a Clean Sheet in its L12 games and host Stoke City having gone 7 straight fixture allowing a goal heading in, both the Over (2½) and the Both Teams To Score Prop bets seem like natural plays here, especially with the Over going 7-3 in the L10 in the series, Spurs likely a bit road-weary from another (unfulfilling) season of Europa League play and the 2-1 scoreline from the first meeting in London. As for my soccer pick, expect the dynamic Harry Kane to get one for Tottenham here on Saturday night at Britannia. 

Predicted Final Score: Stoke City 2 Tottenham 2

Premier League Soccer Pick: Over 2½ -105, Both Teams To Score -150 (bet365)

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