EPL Soccer Picks: Exploit Swansea's Underdog Odds & Grab 'Over'

Nikki Adams

Friday, November 6, 2015 8:34 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 6, 2015 8:34 PM GMT

Norwich and Swansea City collide on the weekend, marking match day 12 of the Premier League. Find out where the value soccer picks are to be had as we breakdown this matchup.

Norwich City Favored
Norwich City enter the weekend’s clash with Swansea City as the home favorites, albeit notionally so with soccer odds of +145 to win straight up. How they can be considered the favorites when they have just two wins in eleven games of the season boggles the mind.

Norwich City are sat in 16th place in the table with a measly 9 points after going 2-3-6 on the season. Home form is a discouraging 1-1-3, highlighted by six goals scored and eight conceded. Road form is equally abysmal with a 1-2-3 mark.

If all that wasn’t bad enough, the Canaries are enjoying a run of five straight defeats across all competitions –four Premier League defeats, one of which was a 6-2 drumming in Newcastle – and a League Cup defeat to Everton.

To date, the only sides the Canaries got the better of involved teams below them in the table –3-1 wins over Sunderland and AFC Bournemouth – and not since mid-September have they journeyed into the win column. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement of their overly optimistic soccer odds for the weekend.

 

Swansea City at Disadvantage
Swansea City are matched as the decisive underdogs on the Premier League odds board trading at +210 soccer odds while the draw is trading a touch higher at +240 soccer odds. However, given the hosts’ woes on the season, might Swansea City capitalize?

Gary Monk’s Swansea City head to Norwich City desperate to revive their top-flight campaign after a rough October that saw the win just one of their four games. A fortnight ago, they beat Aston Villa 2-1, only to slip to 3-0 defeat to Arsenal in the last lap around the league. It was Arsenal though, only one of the title contenders so that outcome should be taken in the relevant context.

Overall, Swansea City are sat in 13th place with a 3-4-4 mark on the season and 13 points. They are 1-2-2 on the road this season, which includes scoring six goals and conceding eight. By the numbers, the difference between Swansea and Norwich in the table amounts to just four points, putting a huge premium on the win.

Swansea City are a difficult side to predict. On one hand they are beating the likes of Manchester United and holding Chelsea, Everton and Tottenham to draws. On the other, they are losing to promoted side Watford and struggling Stoke City and settling on draws with hapless Sunderland.

 

Soccer Betting Verdict
The outright win market is a bit of a tossup in this game because neither side is experiencing convincing form of late. However, on balance, the Canaries do appear to be a whole lot worse than Swansea City are. If we’re betting on one side to take the crucial W, it would have to be Gary Monk’s Swans for our soccer picks at +210.

Where the real value is to be had though is in the totals. The last six meetings between these two sides have served up 25 goals combined, which is more than four goals a game. Recent form suggests both sides can score as well concede in bunches. Surprisingly, the OVER 2.5 is matched at +100 soccer odds, which is a steal for your soccer picks if ever there was one.

Soccer Picks: Swansea +210 & Over 2.5 at +100 at Bet365

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