EPL Soccer Picks: Cash With Defending Champions Chelsea to Win Against Bournemouth

Kevin Stott

Thursday, December 3, 2015 5:59 PM GMT

It’s been a nightmare start for defending champions Chelsea and Manager José Mourinho and on Saturday the Blues welcome AFC Bournemouth. Check our soccer pick inside.

Odds Overview
Chelsea vs. Bournemouth: Defending English Premier League champions and now 14th-place Chelsea (4-3-7, 17 GF-23 GA) welcome 18th-place AFC Bournemouth (2-4-8, 17 GF-30 GA) to Stamford Bridge on Saturday for this Matchday 15 English Premier League fixture from West London between two clubs dealing with the Relegation Zone and Fear much earlier than they both had thought heading into this season. Oddsmakers here have made Chelsea big -275 favorites here over Bournemouth (+700) with the Draw priced at +375 (bet365) while the Total (Goals) in this contest set at 2½ with the Over at -162 and Under priced at +125 (bet365). Some Props wagers for this EPL match from SW6: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ -117, ‘No’ -110 (at Ladbrokes); To Win To Nil: Chelsea +150, Bournemouth +1200 (Sky Bet); and, Draw No Bet: Chelsea -900, Bournemouth +550 (bet365).

 

AFC Bournemouth
AFC Bournemouth (1-1-5, 9 GF 18 GA on Road) have allowed 18 Away goals—tied for the highest-mark in the league—and the Cherries have also scored just 17 Goals in in their 14 games, so this will be tough spot for which the  visitors to get a result in West London. And recently promoted side Bournemouth and Manager Eddie Howe do have some serious and unfortunate Injury problems for a fresh team going up against the rich, big boys with record-signee Tyrone Mings (Knee) out for the season, Winger Max Gradel (Knee) out and expected to be gone for 6 months and talented Striker and team leader Callum Wilson (5 goals) also gone after suffering a Knee injury in a Loss to Stoke City at Britannia Stadium in October. With Wilson, Mings and Gradel out, this team has some of its most dangerous players unavailable for more than at least the immediate time being and Cherries GK Adam Federici has been as good as he can be for a team which looks like it may be headed back where it came from. Like all of us, right? So Bournemouth—which scored a prolific 115 goals last season in winning the Championship and earning promotion and usually employs a 4-4-1-1 tactical formation—is making the most of what it has to work with and last week that ended with a point in an improbable 3-3 Draw to Everton at Dean Court when Winger Junior Stanislas scored both 7 and 8 minutes into Injury Time for the Cherries to miraculously wipe away a 3-1 deficit and what looked like 3 sure points for the Toffees. Against Everton, Bournemouth had Federici as GK, Simon Francis, Steve Cook, Charlie Daniels and Sylvain Distin on D, Dan Gosling, Andrew Surman, brace-scorer Stanislas and Matt Ritchie as MFs and Harry Arter and Joshua King (14/1 Anytime Goalscorer, BetVictor) at Forwards. Defender Adam Smith, substituted in during the 2nd Half, scored in the 80-minute mark to give Bournemouth its first goal and a ray of hope in a game in which the Cherries dominated Possession (57%-43%) and Shots on Goal 19-10. With all that confidence late on Offense, Possession and SOG, it’s now wonder the Over is juiced relatively high (-162, bet365) on the 2½ posted Total.

 

Chelsea FC
Chelsea (3-1-3 Home, 10 GF-10 GA) went unbeaten at Home here at Stamford Bridge last season but those are now distant memories for a team which had racked up 7 Losses by Thanksgiving. After losing a number of talismanic Chelsea club legends like Didier Drogba (MLS, Montreal Impact), MF Frank Lampard (MLS, NYCFC) and GK Petr Cech (Arsenal) and having so many other aging players like 31-year-old D Branislav Ivanovic, 28-year-old MF Cesc Fàbregas and captain and D John Terry now being more just big names than high-quality European football players, Blues Manager José Mourinho has a real problem on his hands. Then toss in hot-head and now non-productive and sometimes-playing F Diego Costa and we have the recipe for surefire disaster at SW6, but with Chelsea having only a 0.01% chance of repeating as Premier League champions and UEFA Champions League football next season looking like a distant dream, does it really matter this season in West London right about now? (No it doesn’t.) Here look for the Blues look for playmaker Eden Hazard (+425 Anytime Goalscorer, BetVictor) to try to set the pace on the attack and who knows if Mourinho gives Costa (+375  Anytime Goalscorer, BetVictor) the start up top after his little jersey throwing episode in Chelsea’s 0-0 Draw at Tottenham-Hotspur across Londowntown on Matchday 14. Temper, temper. Pedro (+550), Kurt Zouma, César Azpilicueta, Oscar (+550), Nemanja Matic and speedy Brazilian Willian (+600) will all be candidates for starts here and if you like that niche Anytime Goalscorer marketplace, Willian has been great this season and seems to hold some real perceived value at +600.

 

Series Trends and Best Betting Approaches
These two teams have only met twice, both matches coming in EPL play in the 1988/1989 season with both sides registering Clean Sheets at Home with Chelsea winning 2-1 on Matchday 8 after Bournemouth won the first meeting ever between the two clubs, 1-0, on Matchday 2at Dean Court. And both games went Under the Total of 2½, but putting any significance in two soccer games which happened before the advent of the Internet is like trying to put one of those square-rocked Fred Flintstone tires on a 2007 Corvette. One thing which stands out when looking at the Standings and the Statistics here is how Chelsea is still sitting with a -6 Goal Differential (17 GF-23 GA) and are dead even (10 GF-10 GA) here at Home at The Bridge. So un-Chelsea-like, giving up so many Goals and not protecting the Home Turf, and the The Special One has to take responsibility. A man who wanted (AS Monaco loanee) Falcao may want to give Fernando Torres another go. We live in dangerous times, you know.
Anyway, with Blues usual starting GK Thibaut Courtois injured, backup Asmir Begovic will have to keep manning the fort and hope Zouma and Azpilicueta continue to play as they have while hoping the rest of the Defense and Central Midfield can get it together. This is yet another huge game for Chelsea, and maybe Mourinho unleashes his Brazilians Willian, Ramires, Kenedy (10/1 Anytime Goalscorer, BetVictor) and Oscar on the Cherries and/or maybe youngster Ruben Loftus-Cheek in a CMF spot. With the season down the tubes before December, Mourinho can afford to experiment with lineups and younger players for the rest of the campaign and see what he is working with. And the way Costa has played (and acted) this season, it’s hard to blame the egocentrical Portuguese Manager for letting Costa sit. Expect a good game out of Chelsea for a change and it seems there is some value in both a Blues Clean Sheet as well as the Under here, so let’s put our money and faith in the kids Begovic and Zouma and just try to use Chelsea at the high -275 soccer odds as a Parlay element with four other select English Premier League favorites this weekend in Matchday 15 play.

Predicted Final Score: Chelsea 2 Bournemouth 0

Premier League Soccer Picks: Under 2½ +135 or Under 3 -125 & Chelsea To Win To Nil +150 at Bet365

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