EPL Soccer Picks: Bet Tottenham To Win High-Scoring Game vs. Aston Villa

Kevin Stott

Saturday, March 12, 2016 8:46 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 12, 2016 8:46 PM UTC

Harry Kane and Tottenham Hotspur will start English Premier League Matchday 30 in 2nd place and 5 points behind league leaders Leicester City and will desperately need the Win and all 3 points here at Villa Park against Aston Villa on Sunday.

With Spurs having gone almost 10 years without a Loss here and Manager Mauricio Pochettino resting most of his starters in Thursday’s UEFA Europa League Round of 16 match at Borussia Dortmund, expecting a Tottenham win and a Kane goal here is like expecting Santa Claus on Christmas Eve. Let’s look at series numbers, recent Trends and injuries here and try to offer some solid soccer picks for this very important match for Spurs on Sunday.


Odds Overview
Second-place Tottenham Hotspur (15-10-4, 51 GF-24 GA) head to Villa Park in Birmingham on Sunday to face 20th-place Aston Villa (3-7-19, 22 GF-55 GA) in this English Premier League Matchday 30 fixture between one side looking to rally and win the league title with the other probably playing its last stretch of games in England’s top flight of football for awhile, with Relegation just a matter of Time (-100,000 to be Relegated, bet365). (You read that right.) Oddsmakers here have made visitors Tottenham -225 favorites here over Aston Villa (+550 soccer odds) with the Draw priced at +350 (bet365) and the Total (Goals) in this contest set at 2½ with the Over and Under both priced at -110 (totesport). Some Props wagers for this EPL match: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ -105 ‘No’ -115 (BetVictor); To Win To Nil: Tottenham +140, Aston Villa +1200 (BetVictor); and, Draw No Bet: Tottenham -550, Aston Villa +350 (bet365).


Tottenham Hotspur FC
Tottenham Hotspur (7-5-2, 24 GF-12 GA) may be a little bit tired heading in here after having to face Fußball-Bundesliga side Borussia Dortmund in Dortmund on Thursday night in Leg 1 of its Europa League Round of 16 game and then having to travel back to England and play on the Road. However, Spurs Manager Mauricio Pochettino obviously made this perceived “easy” EPL match a priority, as he sat most of his key players against the talented German side, which blanked Tottenham, 3-0 as Marco Reus scored twice and further endangered the league’s chances of losing a spot in this UEFA Tournament. Pochettino sat Harry Kane (17 goals), Christian Eriksen (5 goals), Mousa Dembélé (3 goals), Nacer Chadli (3 goals), Eric Dier (3 goals) and Kyle Walker, among others, but he did start GK Hugo Lloris. So now rebounding from a 3-goal deficit on the Return leg (Leg 2) in North London seems an impossibility, putting pressure on Tottenham (55 points in EPL) in league play to make a serious run at 1st-place Leicester City (60 points) from now until the end of May.

And there’s still plenty of Time and 9 weeks (Matchday 30-38) of play left in the EPL, but getting the Win and all 3 points here against last-place Aston Villa is a must. But it seems resting the key starters and focusing so much on this match will do Spurs—and likely Tottenham backers—very well this game even though the Villains would love nothing better than to Rain on Spurs Premier League Parade in this scheduling spot. Villa is going down, so why not throw a little salt in Tottenham’s game, right? Jamie Vardy and the Foxes face Newcastle United at Leicester City on Monday in Matchday 30’s final fixture (NBCSN, 2:55 pm ET/12:55 pm PT).


Aston Villa FC
Aston Villa (2-4-8, 11 GF 23 GA at Home) and new Manager Remi Garde have just 16 points as we near the Ides of March and the Villains sit a distant 8 points behind 18th-place Norwich City (6-6-17, 24 points) and 19th-place Newcastle United (6-6-16, 24 points). So this is a sad club just playing out the string in its last days in the English Premier League from now until late May, and rightfully so as this team has shown little spirit this season and the 22 Goals Scored and the 55 Goals Allowed by Aston Villa are both league worsts. In its last game in Premier League play (March 6), Villa was humbled by Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium, 4-0 as Sergio Agüero scored twice and Yaya Touré and Raheem Sterling added goals for the Citizens in the victory in a game which was surprisingly deadlocked 0-0 at Halftime.

In that game, Garde’s Starting XI included American Brad Guzan as GK, Micah Richard, Ciaran Clark, Joleon Lescott, Alan Hutton and Aly Cissokho as Defenders, Idrissa Gueye, Ashley Westwood and Jordan Veretout in the MF and Gabriel Agbonlahor and Jordan Ayew (5 goals, +450 Anytime Goalscorer, 888sport) as the two Strikers up top in his tactical formation. Needless to say the Sky Blues dominated the match statistically, outshooting Villa, 22-2 and dominating the Time of Possession (71%-29%). And even with this match being at Villa Park in Birmingham, those lopsided numbers could look pretty similar after this 90+ minutes is played on Sunday.


Series Trends, Spurs Logic Behind Resting Players at UEFA Europa League on Thursday, Best Betting Approaches
When these two clubs played earlier this season on Matchday 11 at White Hart Lane in North London, Tottenham rolled to a 3-1 victory as Dembele and Dele Alli (5 goals) gave Spurs a 2-0 lead followed by Ayew pulling one back for the visitors before Spurs sealed the win in Stoppage Time on a Kane goal in Garde’s first game after replacing former Manager Tim Sherwood. In this series Spurs are 60-32-49 (234 GF-204 GA) against Aston Villa overall in Premier League play but just 23-19-28 (97 GF-102 GA) in EPL play lifetime here at Villa Park although Tottenham has W3 straight here, outscoring the Villains 8-1 along the way (2-1, 2-0, 4-0) and hasn’t lost here since the 2007/2008 EPL season.

Major signs of Villa regression for a decade in those numbers. This doesn’t look good for the hosts and backing Kane (+105 Anytime Goalscorer, William Hill) and Spurs is the logical and healthy look here as there’s a huge reason that Tottenham Manager Pochettino risked embarrassment, possible advancement in the UEFA Europa League tournament and this is it—he knows he needs (and wants) this match bad and has rested his players for this one. Getting up for Aston Villa while taking Borussia Dortmund lightly may seem strange to some, but some races can’t be won while others can, and Tottenham is putting all of its energy into making a run at the Premier League title and there’s nothing wrong in trying to profit from their nervous energy. This one should be easy.

Predicted Final Score: Aston Villa 0 Tottenham 3

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Soccer Picks: Tottenham -187, Over 2½ -110, Harry Kane Anytime Goalscorer +105 (William Hill)
Best Line Offered: at Coral

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