EPL Soccer Pick Swansea vs. Man United: Can the Swans Sweep the Series?

Nikki Adams

Friday, February 20, 2015 6:10 PM GMT

Swansea shocked Man United in their season opener. Six months on the pair collides for a top-flight rematch. Join us as we preview this highly anticipated clash and serve up our free soccer picks.

Swansea City Punch Above Weight
It's tempting to dismiss Swansea City in the face of a household names, but the mighty Swans have been known to overachieve on occasion since being promoted to top-flight football. Don't the former Premier League behemoths know only too well after succumbing to a 2-1 defeat to Swansea at the Old Trafford on match day 1 that denied Louis Van de Gaal his much hoped for brilliant start on the season. A lot has happened in both camps since the season curtain-raiser, but as both clubs are inside the Top Ten it obviously hasn't been all bad.

Swansea City are sat ninth in the table with a 9-7-9 record and 34 points, a point clear of Stoke City (tenth) and two points clear of Newcastle United (11th). Their grip on a place in the top-half of the table is tenuous at the moment, relaxing distinctly at the weekend behind a 2-0 loss to a surging West Bromwich Albion on the away. 

On the heels of their recent defeat, combined with a run of three games at Liberty Stadium without a win, it's not really surprising that the Swans are trading as the home underdogs for their date with the Red Devils, who are up to third place following a win over Burnley. What is somewhat surprising is the largesse of their soccer odds. At +260 to win outright at home or draw, odds makers are saying the probability of a positive result is slim to none. In laymen terms: they are a risky soccer pick.

Swans supporters have cause for a quarrel with such a market estimation. To begin with, Swansea have  the 1-0 edge over Man United this season, which should count for something. They also have wins over Arsenal (2-1) and Everton (3-0), both at Liberty Stadium. And a recent win over Southampton on the road, which, ironically, helped Man United to leapfrog Southampton in the table ultimately. Granted those results are far and in between, but they do show a knack for punching above their weight. The upshot of which is the Swans have a punters chance to clinch a positive result at home, surely.

 

Manchester United In Race For Top 4 Finish
Man United lifted their Premier League bid for a Top 4 finish in week 25 EPL betting. They beat Burnley 3-1 at the Old Trafford to extend their undefeated run of top-flight form to four straight games (3-1-0) since a 1-0 home loss to the Saints.

Now, up to third in the table with a 13-8-4 record and 47 points, the Red Devils are five points adrift of Man City and a startling 12-points adrift of Chelsea. It would take a monumental effort at this stage of the season for Man United to clinch the Premier League title, as evinced by the soccer odds (+6600). The realistic achievement for Van Gaal's inaugural season with Man United instead is to lead them back into Champions League, behind  a Top 4 finish that is available at online sports shops at -225.

Towards that end, Van Gaal and his lads can't afford more missteps, of which they've had a few. A couple have been right shockers such as a 5-3 loss to Leicester City on the road and the 2-1 loss to Swansea at home. Then there were some hapless, head scratchers such as the scoreless draw to Burnley, 1-1 draw to Sunderland, 2-2 draw to West Brom, 1-1 draw to Aston Villa and 1-1 draw to Stoke City. Not to be churlish, but there was also the reason-defying 4-0 loss to Milton Keynes Dons in League Cup earlier this season and a scoreless draw to Cambridge United in FA Cup. What were those performances but the prancing about of overpaid world-class underachievers?

Man United have been able to impersonate a top club at the Old Trafford, but that ruse has been exposed on their travels. The amount of points they've dropped with insipid performances away from the Old Trafford just doesn't make the grade. By the numbers, a 3-7-2 away record (CRIKEY ONLY THREE WINS!!!) is hardly comparable to the marauding sense of adventure epitomised by top of the table clubs. Rather it's the domain of most league subordinates. In other words, they are no better than some of the worst teams in the Premier League are (as far as travelling woes go) and are...dare we say it?...even worse than last season's Moyes-inspired group.

 

Soccer Betting Verdict
How can it be then that Man United descend on Swansea City as the firm faves at -105 (or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook). Put another way, with just THREE AWAY WINS on the season, how can soccer bettors back Man United on their soccer picks with any confidence? Granted, Swansea City aren't exactly a force to be reckoned with nor do they have the pedigree of Man United on paper, but in case you failed to notice that's hardly factored on Man United's trips. The Red Devils are pedestrian at best on the road, more likely to fold against a beer league team right now than beat a top-flight middleweight. That alone has to make a soccer pick on Swansea City to win outright or draw worth considering, no?

Soccer Free Picks: Swansea City +260 to win or draw

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