EPL Soccer Odds, Prediction & Pick for Southampton vs. Everton

Kevin Stott

Monday, December 15, 2014 5:26 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 15, 2014 5:26 PM UTC

Southampton needs to stop its free fall and getting the win and all 3 points off visiting Everton will be no easy feat. With this being close, goals could be hard to come by and the Under seems like a solid bet.


Odds Overview
Southampton vs. Everton, Saturday 15:00 (NBC Sports Live Extra (US), 10 a.m. ET/7 a.m. PT): St. Mary’s Stadium in Southampton is the site of this English Premier League Week 17 game between two clubs fans and bettors would have probably expected to be in opposite places in the league table than where they both are now. Host Southampton (6-2-6, 25 GF-13 GA) sits in 5th place heading into this fixture while Everton (4-6-5, 24 GF-23 GA) sits in a surprising 13th.

The Three-Way (Winner) marketplace sees the host Saints priced in Soccer odds at -110, visitors Everton at +229 and the Draw also priced +229 (Skybet) a week before the matchup. The Total Goals in the game is set at 2½ Under and Over both juiced at-115 (Bwin) while the Both Teams To Score odds have been set at are Yes -137, No +100 (bet365).

A couple of random prop bets: Southampton Draw No Bet is -187 (bet365), Everton Draw No Bet is at +137 and Correct Score (Southampton 1-0) is priced at a nice +850 (bet365). Thi one should be close throughout and will actually be more important for the Toffees in the context of where they are both mentally and in the league standings.

Everton FC
Much was expected from Everton (3-3-3 Road, 11 GF-10 GA) this season and the Toffees have been disappointing but blaming Roberto Martínez for the club’s woe would be too simple. Everton has a nice roster and a good chunk of the Toffees scoring has come from 2013 Chelsea strikers—Romelu Lukaku (club-leading 6 goals) and Samuel Eto’o (3)—but this team is sporadic and inconsistent and goalkeeper Tim Howard is the closes thing this team has to a leader. Stalwarts Kevin Mirallas (3 goals), Steven Naismith (4), Phil Jagielka (2) and Leon Osman provide Martínez a nice nucleus and Ross Barkley is waiting in the wings but Lukaku is immature and needs to become the killer scorer he was on loan at West Bromwich Albion in 2012/2013 (17 goals) and here at Everton in 2013/2014 (15 goals).

As the numbers show, the Toffees are dead even on the Road heading into this game and have been somewhat respectable away from Goodison Park, earning 12 points so far, but up against the best defensive team in the Premier League on their home soil will be quite the undertaking for a team who hosted QPR at Goodison Park in Week 16 at Home in Merseyside in a game played after publishing time.

Southampton FC
Southampton (5-1-2 Home, 21 GF-13 GA) has slowly drifted from 2nd to 3rd to 4th to 5th but last Saturday’s Week 16 1-0 loss at Burnley had to really sting and whatever doubts that were starting to creep into the Saints like visions of stale sugar plums dancing through their heads have to now squarely be there and dreams of a potential UEFA Champions League spot may be dissolving to hopes of just landing a Europa League spot now for manager Ronald Koeman

and his new-look squad which lost a number of former key cogs over the summer transfer window. Southampton’s stellar defense—led by Premier League clean sheet-leader Fraser Forster in goal—probably can’t keep up this pace but if the Saints are going to score 0 like they did against the Clarets last weekend, they’ll have to continue to use maximum energy and concentrate first and foremost an defense—a good thing or Unders.

Southampton gets most of its scoring from the same guys: Striker Graziano Pellè (7 goals), three-goal scorers Victor Wanyama and Morgan Schneiderlin, Jack Cork (2 goals), Shane Long (2 goals) and Nathaniel Clyne (2 goals), so stifling them can stifle the Saints. But there are a couple of things going in Southampton’s favor—besides the club’s record over the L14 here at St. Mary’s (below)—here in that it has to be a little mad and inspired after losing to Burnley; the Saints have goalkeeper Forster at Home; and Everton isn’t the most confident club right now.

Best Betting Approaches and Trends
The recent series trends are a mixed bag here and when that happens in the Premier League it usually means one thing—that the teams playing at Home win at Home. Surprise! I know. Who knew? I’ll give you a minute to change your underwear. Home teams winning in sports is rare like commercials on television are rare. Anyway, host Southampton is 7-5-2 in those aforementioned L14 contests, outscoring Everton, 21-13 along the way but over the L28, the Toffees have had the best of it, going 12-8-8 (39 GF-29 GA). The last time these two clubs met here (in April of this calendar year), the Saints shut out Everton, 2-0 and a clean sheet by the hosts and Forster is definitely a possibility here in Southampton, Hampshire. The Saints are an unbeaten 2-3-0 in their L5 (8-5 goals) games against Everton (2-0, 0-0, 2-2, 3-3, 1-0), but winning here will be dependent on Southampton likely somehow finding a way to score first through Pellè or Wanyama or Schneiderlin and then clamping down on defense against Everton, which should be hard against a team who will probably find a way to put 7-10 shots on target despite the Saints defensive reputation. But will any of those shots actually go in? Time will tell but backing the Home team for your Soccer picks on the Draw No Bet line seems wise for a low to moderate amount, as does betting the Under 2½ in what could actually be a very entertaining game on Saturday on Britannia Road in Southampton.

Prediction: Southampton 1 Everton 0

Free Soccer EPL PICKS: Under 2½ -115 (Bwin), Southampton Draw No Bet -187 (bet365)

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