EPL Picks: Bet Home Team in West Ham vs. QPR

Lee Phelps

Wednesday, October 1, 2014 7:44 PM GMT

Queens Park Rangers are getting to the must-win stage already this season, while West Ham are playing some nice football, but also need a result. Check out the betting stats as our capper gives his free picks based on the best soccer odds in this London derby.

West Ham versus QPR may have been many pundits’ idea of a relegation battle pre-season, but Sam Allardyce has done a great job bringing in two strikers who give his team a focal point and one which allows the side to pass the ball rather than hit it long to perennial under-achiever Carlton Cole. Although I’m sure Big Sam would never say he has responded to fans’ clamour for this style of football, one thing is for sure, it had got the West Ham faithful back on side. Even in defeat to Manchester United the forums are still upbeat.

 

Home Banker?
Looking at the soccer odds for this match up, West Ham are odds-on at 19/20 to beat QPR, which instinctively seems a dangerous price. But the more you think about it and look at the two sides, the more I think it’s actually fair. They had 13 chances at Old Trafford, with five of them coming after Rooney’s red card. The brand of football seems to have given the players a new lease of life, the energy is good and even with Cheikhou Kouyate out, Diego Poyet came in and fitted into the system.

The major change is the strikers though. It’s an obvious thing to say, but any defence and midfield at any level of football feels better when the opposition back line have plenty to worry about. They retreat just enough to push them back and crucially the chances you do create aren’t wasted. Now against Manchester United we saw some signs of profligacy creeping in. Enner Valencia should have scored at Old Trafford, but ballooned his effort over, luckily his partner Diafra Sakho (who was 4/1 anytime in my free picks preview last week) obliged. The problem was they were already two goals down. They dominated with the Mancunians a man down and were a head (Kevin Nolan’s offside head) away from equalizing.

Sakho is well worth backing against anyone. He’s scored 4 in 4 and we know he has a pedigree having hit 44 in 114 appearances for Metz. He also set himself the ambitious target of scoring a goal every home game. I have absolutely no idea why he is 19/10 to score anytime when the Hammers are odds on to win the game. So far Sakho has had 12 shots and scored three Premier League goals, with his fourth coming at home in the League Cup. QPR have allowed their opponents an average of 18 shots per game in their away games so far, so I’m more than happy with the price.

 

QP Aargh
I read an article saying there is no need to panic just yet at QPR, with some signs of improvement. Charlie Austin’s great goal, Nico Krancjar’s free-kick that hit the bar and could have earned them a point against Southampton and Napoli loanee Eduardo Vargas gradually settling in are all positives. But, and it’s big but, there are no real signs of the defence improving and without Joey Barton and Jordan Mutch they look light in midfield.

Some may say losing at Tottenham and Manchester United and losing narrowly to high-flying Saints is no shame, but it’s the manner of the defeats. They were terrible against Spurs, with their players coming out after the game saying they needed more passion. They played pretty much the same way against Man U and Southampton had nine shots on target against them in that 2-1 win.

Take a Look at this Cappers Soccer Pick on Tottenham vs. Southampton!

Soccer Picks
I’ve already nailed my colours to the Sakho mast at 19/10 (still can’t believe the price) and I like the West Ham win price, but 19/20 niggles at me from a betting point of view, so with the amount of chances West Ham create and the number QPR allow their opponents, I’m taking West Ham to win and over 2.5 goals at 9/4 for my soccer picks. Since Allardyce started playing the attacking system, all three games have featured three or more goals, while all three of Rangers’ away games have been lost with three or more scored.

Soccer Pick: West Ham to win and over 2.5 match goals 9/4

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":299628, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]