EPL Pick: Take the Under in Aston Villa vs. Leicester City

Lee Phelps

Friday, December 5, 2014 7:30 PM GMT

Two of the poorest attacking teams in the Premier League go head-to-head this Sunday, with Aston Villa facing Midlands rivals Leicester. Our tipster has been looking at the odds and is going against the obvious betting with his free picks.

My betting strategy is usually based around stats rather than trusting my gut, but for Aston Villa vs. Leicester I’m going with my instinct and looking at a game full of goals.

The stats show Villa as being the worst attacking team at home in the division, and Leicester as the second poorest offensive side in the top flight, but interestingly they both allow plenty of opportunities to the opposition.

 

Aston Villa
Joe Cole’s career seemed to be back on track last weekend after his starring role in the draw at Burnley, but it has stalled again in midweek with the news that he is out of Sunday’s clash with the Foxes with a hamstring injury.

It was clear how much his inclusion had lifted the side and how much he had added to the attacking potency, with the ability to open up a defence, so they will miss him. The good news for Villa backers is that Carlos Sanchez – the man who replaced him at Selhurst Park – performed well in his absence.

Writing in the Birmingham Mail, Gregg Evans highlights Sanchez’s strengths:

“He showed signs he has now found his feet in the Premier League and manager Paul Lambert reckons he will only get better.

His presence in the team helps Villa become a much tougher and stronger unit. They will rely on much of their creativity from Gabby Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann, who will play either side of Christian Benteke in the forward positions.

Agbonlahor is less effective out wide but with Benteke fit and firing, he is the right man to lead the line.”

 

Leicester
It’s not been a great week for Nigel Pearson. He’s been criticised for sitting in the stands rather than being on the bench during games (no-one seemed to mind when he was master-minding promotion from the Championship) and of course is now under investigation for ‘having a go’ at a Leicester fan who questioned his team.

He’s got another problem on the horizon too in the shape of a fit-again Christian Benteke. The Belgian returned from a three-game ban to score the winning goal in Villa’s 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.

The problem is exacerbated by Pearson’s backline being under strength. Wes Morgan, who is a regular in their defence, is suspended following his sending-off last time out against Liverpool, so Liam Moore will return to the squad to replace the captain. Both he and Marcin Wasilewski will have their work cut out containing Benteke who looked close to his best in midweek.

Moore is by no means a rookie, following a fine season last term and he has plenty of games under his belt in the Premier League already this campaign.

 

Soccer Picks
As I said, the obvious bet here is to go unders on the goals, but Leicester managed to score two away at QPR and although Villa’s goals have been few and far between, with Benteke leading the line they’ll be more focused on attacking, especially with the new-found confidence of their first win for weeks and their unbeaten run. Keep this in mind when looking at the soccer odds. Nevertheless, I’m recommending the bettors to add over 2.5 goals here at 11/10 for their soccer picks.

Free Soccer Pick: Over 2.5 goals 11/10

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