Chelsea were pipped by Manchester United in the race to sign Romelu Lukaku. Instead they got Alvaro Morata from Real Madrid for a good few million cheaper. Hmmm. Wonder who got the better deal?
We think Chelsea. Indeed, we are convinced enough to recommend you start taking prices about Morata to finish as the Premier League’s top goalscorer. He is +800 with Stan James and BetVictor. He is as short as +650 with Bwin.
Lukaku is actually the second favourite on the market at +400 (William Hill, Bet365) behind Harry Kane. In time punters who follow us in on the Spaniard will be like Chelsea – smug at the much better price about the superior striker.
Morata has joined from Real Madrid where he scored 20 goals. That is no mean feat in La Liga and in a team where opportunities are rare because of Cristiano Ronaldo hogging all the goals.
There are two stats which should really excite Chelsea fans – and us. Last term his conversion rate was 27 per cent, the highest of any striker to score ten goals or more in the 2016-17 campaign. He had 55 shots and scored 15 times.
There is no doubt that with service from Eden Hazard and Cesc Fabregas, Morata is going to get a barrowful of shooting opportunities. Particularly as he will be the main man in this team rather than something of a second fiddle to Ronaldo.
Morata is the replacement for Diego Costa, who looks certain to leave Stamford Bridge. He had 112 shots last season for Chelsea, which just shows the level of service Morata can expect. So, what’s 27 per cent of 112? It’s 30.
So all Morata would have to do is hold his form in English football’s top flight to be in with an outstanding chance of winning the Golden Boot and us a pretty penny.
The great thing is Morata may not need to be as reliable. Over the last four season, 27 goals would have been enough three times. Kane won it last year with 25 and the season before Sergio Aguero won it with 26.
At the very least, Morata is the wrong price. Which is of course all we need. He is a far superior player to Lukaku, with great skill and intelligence. And his finishing is better. Lukaku is a battering ram. Morata has the subtle art.