EPL Burnley vs. Swansea City: Odds, Prediction and Soccer Picks

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, February 25, 2015 6:36 PM GMT

Swansea City knocked off Manchester United in its last Premier League game and now the Swans head to Burnley to face the Clarets. Is Swansea a good pick to take on here at Turf Moor? 

Odds Overview
Burnley vs. Swansea City, Saturday 15:00 (NBC Sports Live Extra, Westwood One Sports (USA); 10 a.m. ET/7 a.m. PT): Eighteenth-place Burnley (4-10-12, 25 GF-44 GA) welcomes 9th-place Swansea City (10-7-9, 30 GF-34 GA) to Turf Moor on Saturday in this Week 27 English Premier League fixture which will be way more important for the hosts who are currently sitting in the Relegation with 22 points and will likely be playing for their Top Flight Lives from now until the season finale on May 24.

Soccer odds have the hosts Burnley slight +150 favorites with Welsh visitors Swansea City priced at +175 underdogs and the Draw lined at +240 (bet365) in the Three-Way (Winner) marketplace. The Total Goals is in this match is 2½ with the Under -142 and the Over +110 (bet365) while the Both Teams To Score odds here have the Yes priced at -126 and the No at -105 (William Hill). Some random props from this game: Total Goals Exact: 0-1 +225, 2 +240, 2-3 -105, 4 or More +275 (bet365); Halftime Score 0-0 +162 (Sky Bet); and, Team To Score First: Burnley +100, Swansea City +105, No Goals +700 (Bwin). Almost something for everyone.

 

Swansea City AFC
Swansea City (3-3-6 Away, 11 GF-19 GA) and manager Garry Monk have had a decent 2014/2015 English Premier League season so far, but losing leading-scorer Wilfried Bony (9 goals) to Manchester City over the January Transfer Window was quite a blow on the pitch, although a nice little profit for the Suits and Ties running the business end of things at the organization. GK Lukasz Fabianski has been a huge part of the Swans (37 points) success and this team definitely won’t have to worry about potential Relegation this season. And, now 9 points back from 5th place, Swansea City can actually try to make a run at a UEFA Europa League spot and make this season a historic one, despite Bony’s departure. This club has truly proved it can hang in this league.

Ki Sung-yueng (5 goals, +600 Anytime Goalscorer, bet365), Gylfi Sigurðsson (4 goals, +300), Wayne Routledge (3 goals, +400), Nathan Dyer (3 goals, +375), Jonjo Shelvey (+375), Modou Barrow (+300), Marvin Emnes (+300) and Nélson Oliveira (+300) are Swansea City’s biggest scoring threats now that Bony’s gone, and, against Burnley, even on the Road, this is a game the guests can win and snag all 3 points in if they really put their minds to it. But Burnley certainly won’t go easy.

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Burnley FC
Only QPR (45 goals) has allowed more goals than 18th-place Burnley (4-10-12 Away, 25 GF-44 GA) this season and the Clarets and Manager Sean Dyche can’t put all of the blame on the defense and GK Tom Heaton for the club’s current reality. Being promoted to the English Premier League when you’re a team from a small market town north of Manchester (population 75,000) isn’t easy, as Burnley have been reminded this season. The Clarets do have an energetic, productive and team-oriented player which it can build around in Danny Ings (9 goals, Anytime Goalscorer, bet365), and, with components like Sam Vokes (+225), Ashley Barnes (5 goals, +250), George Boyd (4 goals, +450), Scott Arfield (+375), Ross Wallace (+500), Michael Kightly (+600) and strikers Lukas Jutkiewicz (+300) and Marvin Sordell (275), the Clarets actually do have some firepower on the attack. But trying to jell as a young team while constantly having to play defense while worrying about staying up in the Premier League is a tough juggling act for any newly-promoted side in this extremely unforgiving league. Ask Norwich City. Or maybe Blackburn Rovers or the Wanderers of Wolverhampton or Bolton, who both wandered out of the league in 2012, possibly to never be heard from again. Much like Ke$ha or Google Glass. Life is hard. Don’t disappear.

 

Best Betting Approaches and Trends
Swansea City will head into Turf Noor thinking and expecting it can win on Saturday and probably most teams facing Burnley think the same thing. With Swansea City recently promoted to the EPL and Burnley promoted this season, these two clubs haven’t played that much and the Swans are 3-1-1 (6 GF-3 GA) lifetime against the Clarets in all competitions. The two have met only one time in EPL play—this years at the Liberty Stadium in Swansea where the Swans and Fabianski shut out Burnley, 1-0. Coming off an impressive 2-1 win against Manchester United at Home in Wales, expect the Swans to have a little more pep in their step for this one. But Burnley and Ings will put up a fight here, making a Both Teams To Score wager worth consideration. But for me, the value and the soccer pick here would probably best be done on visiting Swansea City with a potentially value-laden price near +200 in some shops (+190, BetVictor, Coral, Matchbook). Despite the Clarets needing the win or draw and the points so much, guys like South Korea’s Ki—one of the most underrated guys in the league—and Dyer and Sigurðsson are good at finding ways to win, and against one of the worst teams in the Premier League in Burnley, it’s usually just that much easier.

 

Prediction: Burnley 1 Swansea City 2

Free EPL Soccer Pick: Swansea City +190 (BetVictor), Both Teams To Score Yes -125 (William Hill)

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