Elche vs. Real Madrid La Liga Soccer Pick: Top Rated Value Bet in Spanish League

Kevin Stott

Saturday, February 21, 2015 5:00 PM GMT

Saturday, Feb. 21, 2015 5:00 PM GMT

Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Alicante, Spain is the site of this Week 22 La Liga match between league leaders Real Madrid and host Elche. So, what’s the best betting approach for this mismatch?

Odds Overview
Elche vs. Real Madrid, Sunday 20:00 (beIN Sports USA, beIN Sports en Español, beIN SPORTS CONNECT (US); Sky Sports 5/HD, NOW TV, Sky Go, Sky Go Extra (UK), 12 p.m. ET/9 a.m. PT): Real Madrid (19-0-4, 72 GF- 22 GA) and superstar Cristiano Ronaldo (26 goals) head to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero to face 17th-place Elche (6-5-12, 21 GF-42 GA) on Sunday in a Week 22 La Liga fixture which proves to be a difficult handicap because of the expected high soccer odds on the favorites, defending UEFA Champions League titlists, Real Madrid.

Oddsmakers have visiting Real Madrid large -550 favorites (bet365) in the Three-Way (Winner) marketplace with the guests Elche at a robust+1600 (16/1) and the Draw priced at +600. The Total Goals in this match is 3½ (Under -150, Over +110; bet365) with the Both Teams To Score Prop odds having the No priced at -137 and the Yes at +100 (William Hill), so, linemakers do give the hosts about a 50/50 shot of scoring on Madrid and likely GK Iker Casillas. Real Madrid To Win To Nil is lined at -120 (bet365) while underdogs Elche To Win To Nil is at +2800—a fair price should Elche do it against one of the strongest, richest and deepest clubs on the European continent.

 

Real Madrid CF
All three of Real Madrid’s (9-0-3 Away, 37 GF-15 GA) losses have come on the Road, but Elche is 4 points away from the Relegation Zone and not the type of team to upset mighty Madrid here although the hosts will surely give CR7 & Co. hell for awhile. On Tuesday, Cristiano Ronaldo (-200 Anytime Goalscorer, bet365) and Real Madrid topped host FC Schalke 04 in Leg 1 of their UEFA Champions League series so the visitors head into this one confident and CR7 opened the scoring in the win. Teammates Karim Benzema (-150), Gareth Bale (-137), Isco (+187), Jesé Rodriguez (+120), Toni Kroos (+333) and Javier Hernández (+120) will look to lend a hand and with barcelona (56 points) just a points back of Real Madrid (57 points) heading into this weekend of play, going out and taking care of business from this point on will be imperative for the European champions and manager Carlo Ancelotti, who actually do have some kinks in their game.

The big problem comes here in how to bet this baby, as at -550 (on the Three-Way line), Real Madrid is probably best only used as a parlay element with some other heavy weekend chalks like Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Chelsea and Manchester City. Madrid GK and captain Iker Casillas should be tested some here and Elche could score in what should be a fast-paced game at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero on Sunday. And the answer seems somewhat simple: The Asian Handicap. Real Madrid -2 -105 and Real Madrid -1.5 -173 are both fairly priced (bet365) and possibly looks like the best approach in a game we should expect the favorites to win by 2 goals or maybe more.

 

Elche CF
As you can see, Elche (3-3-6 Home, 11 GF-21 GA) has been outscored by 10 goals at Home and has allowed twice as many goals (21) as it has scored (42) heading into this fixture. Real Madrid’s legend Ronaldo (28) has more goals this season than do Los Franjiverdes (The Green-Striped Ones)—Elche, who have given up more goals than any other club in La Liga except 19th-place Levante (43). Woe is thee. Los Ilicitanos (The Ones from Elche) leading scorer is 25-year-old forward Jonathas (9 goals, +450 Anytime Goalscorer, bet365) and Victor Rodriguez (5 goals) and David Lomban (3 goals) also add some offense but like all of the other bottom-dwellers in this talented league, goals come too infrequently and one main striker or forward usually is forced to try to carry the scoring load...a recipe for disaster. Elche’s GK is Przemyslaw Tyton will be up against one of the strongest attacking forces around on Sunday and the 28-year-old Polish international will surely be tested for the full 90 minutes with Madrid nervous its league league has tightened up so much.

 

Best Betting Approaches and Trends
Real Madrid has dominated this series as one would expect, going 29-9-6 overall (106 GF-38 GA) and a pristine 18-3-0 (81 GF-19 GA) at Home at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium versus Elche. But here at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, the Madridistas are just 8-6-6 (25 GF-19 GA) against Los Franjiverdes, and the last time that they played here —last season in Week 6—Real Madrid escaped with a 2-1 victory, the closest game in the L6 meetings, all won by Madrid (23 GF-5  GA). Of course. When these two met earlier this season in Week 5 in Madrid, Real Madrid exploded to a 5-1 victory as Ronaldo scored 4 goals for the winners and Christian Bale added one. If interested, the odds for CR7 To Score A Hat-Trick in this game are +600 (BetVictor).

For our soccer pick we can expect Real Madrid to probably get 2 goals in the First Half and 2 goals in the Second Half with Ronaldo probably getting one in each half...because that’s how he rolls. Real Madrid’s elimination from Copa del Rey combined with Barcelona breathing down its neck as it tries to win La Liga along with the pressure of trying to repeat as Champions League champs has created a nervous team full of stars all doubting their abilities and trying to score on every frenetic possession up-pitch that somehow keeps rolling right along—that is unless they are facing city rivals Atlético Madrid. And they’re not here.

 

PREDICTED FINAL: Elche 1 Real Madrid 3

FREE LA LIGA PICKS: Real Madrid -1.5 -173 (BetVictor), Over 3½ +110 (bet365)

ANYTIME GOALSCORER PICK: Karim Benzema -150 (bet365)

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