Early Soccer Prop Betting Projections & Picks for Champions League Finals

Kevin Stott

Friday, May 29, 2015 7:02 PM GMT

Friday, May. 29, 2015 7:02 PM GMT

With hundreds of various soccer props picks out for this UCL Finals, are there any nice plusses that may have value looking at the game from a pro-Barça winning, pro-Messi POV? 

Introduction
The UEFA Champions League Final is finally upon us, and the two best teams in the prestigious tournament—Spanish La Liga champions Barcelona and Italian Serie A champions Juventus—made it to next Saturday’s (June 6) big game from Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany (FOX, Fox Deportes, Fox Soccer 2GO USA (US), Sky Sports 1/HD UK, Sky Sports 5/HD, Sky Go UK, NOW TV, STV Scotland, ITV 1 UK (UK); 20:45 CEST 19:45 § 2:45 p.m. ET/11:45 a.m. PT). Superstar Lionel Messi and Barcelona got to this Final by beating German Fußball-Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich in the semifinals, while the Old Lady Juventus bounced last year’s holders Real Madrid and Cristiano Ronaldo from the tourney in their semifinal 2-leg series, meaning that once again that there won’t be repeat champions in Europe. This beat goes on.


UEFA Champions League Finals Odds
Barcelona -162, Juventus +450, Draw +300; Total: 2½ Under -117, Over -105 (bet365)


UEFA Champions League Odds to Lift Trophy
Barcelona -275, Juventus +225 (bet365)


UEFA Finalists Recent Tournament Form Guides
Juventus UEFA Champions League Form: LWWDWWWDWD
Barcelona UEFA Champions League Form: WWWWWWWWWL


The High-Scoring Potential Messi Hat-Trick, MOTM Basket of Bets
A man getting a Hat-Trick (3 goals for the uninitiated) in a game with a Total of 2½ goals? Are you serious? And don’t most “Big Games” skew toward the Under? In a theoretical like this of course this is serious. But then again, 6 goals are possible on a keyboard, even 9 if you’re feeling Strong. But we’re talking about Barça and Lionel Messi, that high-flying, Historic Circus of Soccer. Barcelona’s trio of Lionel Messi (58 goals), Luis Suárez (25 goals) and Neymar (41 goals) have a mind-boggling 124 goals in all competitions, so expecting that to suddenly come to a stop here because of a posted number by Champions League odds makers is a bit ludicrous. And often, one can see a game with just a handful of quality Shots On Goal and minimum real scoring attempts but this certainly doesn’t seem like one of them and betting ‘Yes’ the Both Teams To Score (Yes -110, No -125, bet365) Prop Wager seems like it may hold great value. besides the aforementioned Super-Troika of Messi (+300 First Goalscorer, bet365), Suárez (+500) and Neymar (+500), Barcelona also has Pedro (6 goals in La Liga, +600), Croatian midfielders Ivan Rakitic (+900), Xavi (+850) and Andrés Iniesta (+1200), Gerard Piqué and 19-year-old Spanish Forward Munir (+600). All three of these prolific dudes will want to score here and Messi will probably want to get 2 goals himself and this team has been clicking on Offense at the highest level possible in this UEFA Champions League (as well as La Liga) and the Blaugrana are healthy coming in here and having fun playing the game itself. No small thing. Fun equates to looseness and looseness equates to productivity.

And if that wasn’t enough in making a case for goals being scored on the Grass surface of Berlin’s Olympiastadion in this UEFA Champions League Final next Saturday, we also have Juventus, a club known for its Defense but one which now has one of the best Offenses and attacks in the Old Lady’s storied history. Midfielder Messi was reportedly warning his Barça teammates about Juventus Striker Carlos Tevez (+700, First Goalscorer, bet365), and along with Fernando Llorente (+1000), Álvaro Morata (+1100), the quick Arturo Vidal (+1200), striker Alessandro Matri (+1100), a now healthy Paul Pogba (+1400), Udinese-loanee Roberto Pereyra (+2000), legendary club captain Andrea Pirlo (+2000) and Claudio Marchisio (+2200), the Italian champs could also very well bust off 2 or 3 goals here (and still lose) despite the talent of Barcelona GK Claudio Bravo. But for that to happen keeping the Possession battle near even 45%-55% its way (Juventus) will be imperative. The Old Lady will have to expend much energy to try to keep Messi & Company in check and concentrate much of Defense, which could stifle its Offense. But if Juventus gets down (1-0), this team definitely has the firepower, chops and confidence to come right back at the Spanish giants and I’m a little surprised the vigorish on the Over (at 2½ goals) wasn’t near -150, let alone at its current -105. Even if Oddsmakers hung a Total of 3 up for this—though hard for the sheer amount of bets they would probably get on that number knowing the wager would Push should it fall right on 3 (goals)—many wouldn’t be surprised and the scores of Barcelona’s L11 games in the Champions League reveal: (2-3, 3-0, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0, 2-1, 3-1, 4-0, 2-0, 3-1 and 2-3).

Granted, Juventus GK Gianluigi Buffon is world class and the Old Lady plays and has historically played, some of the best Defense on the planet, but stopping Messi may require a UEFA-approved Fishing Net or something and to expect the best player in the history of the sport to be stopped at This Point In Time is bordering on football insanity. Containing Messi a little bit may be the most that Juventus can hope for next weekend and with soccer odds for the 27-year-old Argentine superstar Messi to score a Hat-Trick as high as 25/1 in some sportsbooks (+2500, William Hill), well, this is sort of what Sports Gambling was made for brother—the Big Game with the Big Superstar on the world’s stage and as good as Messi has been throughout his illustrious career, he’s even better now and evening up The Mental Score with La Liga rivals Real Madrid—who won last year—and having Messi match and maybe surpass 2014 Final MVP Cristiano Ronaldo’s performance is definitely a possibility, especially with Juventus unable to just isolate and concentrate on Messi and ignore his oh-so talented Barcelona teammates—Suárez, Neymar, Pedro, Rakitic, Xavi and Iniesta. Stop Messi and it could still be 3-0 Barcelona in the 2nd Half. So, if Barcelona wins—and it’s favored to—Messi goes off scored a Hat Trick and then obviously wins Man Of The Match—which would be no surprise to anyone—it seems there would be a little bit of Money to be made with Odds of 25/1 and 3/1 on those particular Props bets (Messi Hat Trick, Messi MOTM). At least, it seems like asking for a 2-1 Barça scoreline (+800, Ladbrokes) isn’t that much here.


Conclusions, Ideas and Some Other Funky Stuff That’s Out There
Massive respect again for both GKs, Juventus’ Buffon and Barcelona’s Bravo here, but this is a Final, a Winner-Take-All thing and again, there has to be at least 10-15+ decent scoring attempts in this game on this pitch between these two teams, doesn’t there?. The weather forecast from The Weather Channel for next Saturday in Berlin calls for Sunny conditions with a High of 83°, so everything seems perfect for goals and everyone is relatively pretty healthy on both squads, as to be expected with a little time heading into this Final. With all of this theoretical Offense and Messi being the Hero and the game being high-scoring, plugging in a simple soccer pick with Barcelona (-162, bet365) in the Over 2½ (-105, bet365) Parlay seems very Wise. Of note, an Exact Score Prop bet with Barcelona winning by a 3-1 scoreline has odds of 12/1 (Ladbrokes), while a 3-2 Barcelona win is lined at 25/1, and that is not out of the question in my mind here in Berlin. This match seems like it has the potential to evolve into a shootout, after some early defense probably, but expecting Unders and Nothingness in games where Lionel Messi is playing seems a little delusional, and when a play himself seems like he alone can account for 80% (2 goals of a 2½ goal Total) of the scoring in a given game, then saddling up that Little Horse and creating some Fun and some Wise and hopefully profitable bets with some plusses in your pocket before this game seems well worth it here, with that aforementioned 3-2 Barcelona-winning scoreline (25/1.William Hill) very possible in Germany next Saturday evening. Those who doubt Lionel Messi—the three of you—always learn and we are truly witnessing an athlete in the prime of his fabulous career and he will want to make us all smile here. Run, rabbit run.

 

UEFA Champions League Final Parlay: Barcelona -162 with Over 2½ -105 (bet365)

UEFA Champions League Final Prop Bet: Match Result & Both Teams to Score- Barcelona +275 (bet365)

UEFA Champions League Final Prop Bet: Man of the Match- Lionel Messi +300 (BetVictor)

UEFA Champions League Final Prop Bet: Hat Trick- Lionel Messi +2500 (William Hill)

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