DreamHack Valencia: Talent & Recent Form Complicate Picks

Wednesday, July 11, 2018 6:55 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 11, 2018 6:55 PM UTC

After the enormity that was Cologne, we now return to a smaller tournament. DreamHack Valencia begins Thursday and features several esports and games, so let's check out CS:GO and StarCraft2!

<h2>Teams</h2><p>Based on form (and talent) and a loose expectation from the teams coming into this tournament, it is very difficult to peg a clear winner. G2 showed a resurgence in Cologne before getting upset to finalists Big. However, it was clear that they have put in some serious work since Dallas. So <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/" title="Free Sports Picks">I would have to favor them coming in</a>, but there are some other very talented teams attending. The other common theme (2018'esque) is the amount of roster changes in the teams attending. North, Heroic, Virtus Pro and Luminosity have all added new players to their roster in the past couple weeks -- some as recently as two days ago. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/" title="Sports Betting Odds">This would explain the relatively low price</a> on an already very talented G2 squad.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Many great teams will battle it out in Spain this week! &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/DreamHack?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@Dreamhack&lt;/a&gt; Valencia starts on TOMORROW and will host teams like &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/G2esports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@G2esports&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/AGOesports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@AGOesports&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/TheNorthIsHere?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@TheNorthIsHere&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/heroicgg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@heroicgg&lt;/a&gt; and many more!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Catch all the games and the players POVs with the &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/DIGITALPASS?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#DIGITALPASS&lt;/a&gt;!&lt;a href=\"https://t.co/ZiAH7bxM7W\"&gt;https://t.co/ZiAH7bxM7W&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/F21QfT6a78\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/F21QfT6a78&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Znipe.tv (@ZnipeTV) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/ZnipeTV/status/1017039555617148928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;July 11, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p> </p><h2>Group A</h2><p>North have swapped Spanish player Mixwell in for their talented awper, Mertz. Mixwell has played for a couple top North American teams but has been out of work for awhile now. Given the opposition, I do not expect him to personally struggle. That said, North will now be forced to communicate in English which should not be a problem but might not allow them to operate at their usual efficiency. However, I do still expect them to progress along with the Polish roster, Ago. The Poles are always a question mark against this type of field. They definitely made a name for themselves a month ago, but since then have been mediocre. Heroic could be dangerous, but with Es3tag still their primary awper, I remain unconvinced they have the firepower needed. That said, only two Bo1 victories are needed for one team to make it out of the groups. Which leads to the final team in the Group A, Giants. Now I wouldn't normally mention such a big underdog, but as we've seen rosters playing in front of their home crowd sometimes do incredible things! In all seriousness I do not expect them to make it out of the groups, but maybe a bet on the spread is warranted.</p><p> </p><h2>Group B</h2><p>Group B is incredibly competitive. Tournament favorites G2 would be the laughing stock of the community if they failed to make it out. The other three teams however are very close in talent and current form. Virtus Pro recently added Morelz in the departure with Snax. He might be a good player, but he is no Snax. So unless Morelz boosts the "morale...z," I do not see them being any better. Luminosity recently brought back twins Hen1 and Lucas1 to their organization and so far it has not looked very good. They are very talented players, but I wonder how long it will take to translate in a unified effort on LAN. The one team that I think will have some serious value this weekend is Fragsters. They are very young players, but are on an upward trajectory. As long as nerves don't get to them, they could certainly take maps or series against both VP and LG.</p><p> </p><h2>Props</h2><p><strong>Winners Group: Group B -120</strong></p><p>With G2 in this group as the clear favorite and three teams that I could see beating any teams in Group A, I really like this prop.</p><p><strong>Group A Winner: Ago +400</strong></p><p>North with a stand-in offers no value at -200. If -- and this is a big if -- they do show the good version of themselves then they should be the heavy favorite against Heroic and about a "pick' em" against North. Also very possible in two best of ones.</p><p><strong>Opening Matches</strong></p><p>Ago (-2.5) -125 (10 a.m. ET)</p><p>Fragsters (ml) +160 (11:30 a.m. ET)</p><p>These lines can all be found at <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4581&amp;book=Bet365" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Bet365</a>, but many other good books will have markets offered the day the tournament begins.</p>
comment here