Baltimore owns a four-game winning streak, the Mets a three-game losing streak. This handicapper doesn't always subscribe to the "streak" betting theory, but it might come into play Tuesday night at Camden Yards.
Mets-Orioles Tuesday Odds
As of early Tuesday morning the best line available on New York and Jake deGrom was the -103 offered at BetOnline, while Baltimore and Kevin Gausman were “getting” +100 at YouWager. And the total on tonight's game sat at 7.5 runs.
New York was on a nice run, building a multi-game lead in the NL East, but just got swept three games over the weekend at home by Pittsburgh, losing Sunday 8-1. The Mets then had Monday off.
At 63-55 New York leads the NL East by 4.5 games over second-place Washington.
Baltimore, meanwhile, just swept four games at home from Oakland, winning Monday 4-2.
At 61-56 Baltimore trails the first-place Yankees now by just four games in the AL East, and leads the race for the second American League wild-card spot by a half-game over the Angels.
This is the second encounter between these teams this season; back in May the Mets swept two games from the O's at Citi Field, with both games playing UNDER.
Gausman (2-4, 4.48) is four-for-eight on quality starts since joining the Baltimore rotation back in June, and three for his last four. Last Wednesday he held Seattle to three runs through seven innings, which was a nice rebound effort, after getting nicked for six runs in less than six innings in his previous start, against the Angels. On the season Gausman has allowed 57 hits through 60 innings, walked 16 and struck out 52.
Baltimore is 3-5 in Gausman's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER by a 5-2 margin.
This will be Gausman's first-ever start against New York, although he threw one perfect inning of relief against the Mets back in May.
deGrom (11-6, 2.02) is 18-for-22 on quality starts, which ranks among the best in baseball, working on a run of six in a row. Last Wednesday he tossed seven innings of two-hit, shutout ball against Colorado, whiffing 10, and over his last six starts he's permitted just six runs through 41 innings. On the season deGrom has allowed just 103 hits through 147 innings, walked 28 and struck out 152.
The Mets are a solid 15-7 in deGrom's starts, with the totals going 10-11.
In his only previous career start against Baltimore, back in May, deGrom held the O's to one run and six hits through seven innings, with one walk and nine whiffs, in a 5-1 New York victory.
Tuesday's Batting Splits
New York ranks just 29th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .239 team batting average, and 24th with a .303 team on-base percentage.
Baltimore ranks 14th against righties with a .253 team average and 19th with a .310 team OBP.
Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Camden Yards this season are 31-25 on the UNDERS, even though they've averaged 9.1 runs per, seventh-most among all ML ballparks. Apparently odds makers have been over-posting their totals on Orioles home games.
Mets 1B Lucas Duda (21 HR) has missed recent action with a sore back, but could return to the lineup tonight.
Mets-O's Tuesday Free Picks
deGrom owns the edge in the pitching match-up, although Gausman has been better as of late, while our other handicapping factors seem to even out. But New York just scored six runs in getting swept three games by the Pirates over the weekend, while Baltimore just scored 34 runs in sweeping four games from Oakland. So we'll take the O's on a streak play. Also, we rank both these bullpens among the top six or so in baseball at the moment, so we're thinking UNDER.
MLB Picks: Baltimore and UNDER 7.5 runs (-101) at Pinnacle