Do Boxing Bettors Have Any Reason to Pick Maidana?

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, May 1, 2014 3:26 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 1, 2014 3:26 PM UTC

Marcos Maidana is the latest challenger to Floyd Mayweather’s welterweight crown and his legacy as the greatest boxer the world has ever known.  But how will Maidana shock the boxing world and return a hearty return in offshore’s boxing odds?

Click here to compare all of the Mayweather vs. Maidana betting odds.

Maidana’s No Rocky But…
In the event someone is making Marcos Maidana out to be the Argentinian version of Rocky, let me disabuse one and all of that notion.  Maidana is a rough and tumble fighter to be sure, but this 30-year-old Argentinian has not been plucked from the shadows of a smoky backroom to suddenly ascend to fighting the Apollo Creed of our generation, Floyd Mayweather. 

Indeed Maidana’s rise has been crafted on pure skill and brute strength.  He has fought world champions and is currently a world champion himself, owning the WBA version of the welterweight title.  Therefore, this is not a barroom brawler who’s gotten lucky.  He may strike some as a thuggish fighter and devoid of the silky smooth speed and footwork of some of his contemporaries but Maidana has a granite chin and the ability to rally if that granite gets cracked, as he has never been knocked out despite getting floored on a few occasions. 

Some have questioned Maidana’s ring intelligence while others have winced at his looping punches that turn into swarms rather than precise, laser-locked missiles that score points and do damage.  However, no one has questioned Maidana’s stamina or his steely resolve.  He will routinely overpower his opponents, landing brutal shots in the clinch and wear them down until their knees buckle and their chin drops.  He is not pretty but he is exciting as his 12-round war with Amir Khan will attest, earning both fighters the Boxing Writers Association of America Fight of the Year Award in 2010.

How do we predict Mayweather's gameplan to pan out?

Game Plan
Maidana’s style is not pretty which runs completely counter to the fleet-footed phantom that is Floyd Mayweather.  Maidana’s camp understands that if this fight goes the distance, his chances are markedly diminished.  Mayweather routinely wins his fights by outpointing his opponent and Maidana looks custom made for a slow, methodical Mayweather massacre.  Therefore, the early rounds will tell the tale.  The Argentinian must touch gloves in the opening round and then launch a furious assault that will soften up Mayweather and put the champion on the defense from Jump Street.  He will gladly stand and trade with the faster, more elegant Mayweather thus risking a cut that may ultimately disable him as the fight grows long.  But if this fight reaches the championship rounds, the odds are that Maidana will be hopelessly behind on points. 

Maidana is just the latest of a series of challengers to Mayweather and the pundits are giving him two chances of winding up on the winning end of this one – slim and none – and Slim just left town.  But I see Maidana having a chance against Mayweather because boxing’s Mr. Everything has to get old sometime and a raging bull like Marcos Maidana can hasten that journey.  Don’t be surprised if Maidana powers Mayweather into a tight clinch and lands a head butt or two to goad Mayweather into a brawl.  He won’t care if a point is taken away because he’s not going to win this one on points and he knows it.  He will have to employ a scorched earth policy where he lays it all on the line because once this fight creeps past six rounds, he might as well pack it in and start training for a rematch with Adrien Broner. 

If you’re looking for value in your boxing odds then you could do much worse than Marcos Maidana.  He’s got a punchers chance to be sure but if Mayweather hasn’t gotten old since he earned a majority decision over Saul Alvarez in September then this one looks tailor made for the champ.

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