So the French Open comes down to Novak Djokovic versus Stanislas Wawrinka. William Hill's Lee Phelps can only see one winner and has a nice price to take into the final.
Novak Djokovic could complete the Slam collection in Paris on Sunday, with world number nine Stan Wawrinka standing in his way in the French Open Men's Final. If you haven’t backed Djokovic at the outset as advised in our pre-tournament article at 1.8, then I’m not sure you’ll get too rich doing it now.
Novak Djokovic vs. Stanislas Wawrinka
I do think there is value in the match because of Wawrinka’s ability in flashes. Let’s get the shocking head to head out of the way – the Swiss has lost 17 of his previous 20 matches against Djokovic and has a 5-1 deficit on clay (the one win cam way back in 2006).
Add to those stats the fact that Djokovic has won 41 of 43 matches in 2015, is a two-time runner-up in Paris and has already beaten Nadal and Murray on the way to the final and you have to say the tennis odds on him winning are justified.
So let’s look at how we can make money here. One of the few Wawrinka wins against Djokovic came on his journey to winning his first and only Grand Slam in Melbourne in 2014, although it was avenged this season.
Stan’s form is good this season too, winning a couple of ATP titles, getting to the last four in Rome and has beaten Federer in Paris, with whom he had a 1-16 head-to-head. Federer is a mile off Djokovic however.
I spoke to tennis commentator for Sky and Eurosport Nick Lester today for William Hill’s podcast and he spoke about Wawrinka’s powerful ground strokes and serve and how he thinks he can take the game away from Djokovic. He qualified that by adding he doesn’t see him having the consistency and ability to stay with Nole.
An interesting stat on the pair’s Slam matches shows how in five of the six meetings, all five sets have been used. The one bucking the trend featured the Swiss player retiring.
This all fits into the idea that if Wawrinka can get the upper hand, as we saw Murray do in the semi-final we can get a nice price on Djokovic winning, with both players winning a set. It’s 1.91 (10/11) for Wawrinka to win a set, but there is no point in playing that with my tennis picks when Djokovic is such a certainty.
Tennis Pick: Djokovic to win, with both players winning a set 2.75 (7/4) with William Hill.