Daytona 500 NASCAR Picks, Predictions: Will Ford Success Continue in The Great American Race?

After all the build-up, it’s time to kick off the 2023 NASCAR season. Get in on the action with our Daytona 500 NASCAR odds and picks.

For the 65th time, NASCAR drivers will take the green flag for the Daytona 500, also known as “The Great American Race.” After a week of practices, qualifying, and duel races, the field is set for Sunday’s event.

Alex Bowman will begin on the pole this year, extending Hendrick Motorsports’ run of front-row starts for the Daytona 500. Last year’s winner, Austin Cindric, rolls off from the sixth starting position after qualifying as the eighth-fastest driver. 

Here are our best bets and picks for the 2023 Daytona 500 at the Daytona International Speedway (odds via DraftKings, BetMGM, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Daytona 500 picks to win

• Denny Hamlin (+1300 via DraftKings)
• Joey Logano (+1400 via BetMGM)
• Bubba Wallace (+1800 via FanDuel)

Daytona 500 odds

Who will win the 2023 Daytona 500?

Denny Hamlin (+1300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hamlin has three career Daytona 500 wins as the pilot of the No. 11 Toyota Camry. He took home back-to-back trophies in 2019 and 2020.

In 2021, he finished in fifth place at the event. Last season, he was wrecked out on lap 63 and wound up with a 37th-place finish. This year, he will roll off the starting grid from the 26th position but will have early help from the five other Toyotas starting near him.

Caesars shows the most faith in Hamlin to score his fourth Daytona 500 victory, as it's offering the shortest odds for him to win.

This is a four-star play, but it's less about his talent and more about the volatility of superspeedway racing. 

Joey Logano (+1400 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Logano is not the most popular choice to take home the checkered flag on Sunday. He has not logged a finish of better than 12th place in his last three Spring races in Daytona.

However, he does have a win at this race and will start from P3 to begin his championship defense. He surprised many by winning the Clash at the Coliseum, and he’s in a fast Ford that can help him win his second Daytona 500 trophy.

Most of the books seem to agree on Logano’s ability to bring his car across the finish line in first place. His +1200 price tag is consistent with the exception of Caesars (+1000) and BetMGM (+1400). 

Bubba Wallace (+1800 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Wallace boasts an average career finish of 8.7 at Daytona. He has three second-place finishes in his last three races at the track, including last season’s Daytona 500. He has a top-three finish in half of his six starts here, all of the runner-up variety.

Wallace has run well so far during Speedweeks, qualifying in 11th place, and he was the fastest Toyota to boot. He will begin in 15th place after finishing in seventh place in Duel No. 2.

Books have him almost unanimously at +1800 to finally win his first Daytona 500. Caesars is the only outlier, but the hit is slight coming in at +1600. He will have his work cut out for him, but he will be starting this race with enough Camrys around him to get up to the front and stay there. 

Daytona 500 NASCAR power rankings

Daytona 500 power rankings courtesy of Henry John.

10. Corey LaJoie (+10000 via DraftKings)

Of the drivers with true longshot odds to win the Daytona 500, Corey LaJoie is one to consider. Despite driving in underfunded equipment, LaJoie has regularly been a factor late in superspeedway races. This includes three top-10 finishes in Daytona's last seven NASCAR Cup Series races. He also showed his potential in the second duel race Thursday night when he came home fifth.

9. Austin Dillon (+3000 via DraftKings)

The Daytona International Speedway could be Austin Dillon’s best track. In addition to winning the 2018 Daytona 500, he piloted the No. 3 Chevrolet to a third-place run in 2021 and won last year’s Coke Zero Sugar 400. His 14.3 average finish ranks second among all drivers who started each of the last 10 Cup Series races at the track. Having a motivated teammate like Kyle Busch could also help Dillon this year.

8. Erik Jones (+4000 via SuperBook)

Although he hasn’t had a ton of solid finishes at Daytona recently, no one can deny Erik Jones’ knack for running well at the superspeedways. The most recent example was him nearly winning outright at Talladega last season. Jones won the 400-mile race at Daytona in 2018 and was third in the 500 the following year. He'll benefit from having two teammates in the field Sunday.

7. Chase Elliott (+1400 via SuperBook)

As the most recent superspeedway winner, it’s only fitting that Chase Elliott lands among our Daytona 500 driver power rankings. NASCAR’s most popular driver is known for his prowess at road courses, but he's proven he can get it done in the draft as well. The No. 9 Chevrolet finished top-10 in four of the last five Cup Series races held at Daytona. Elliott was runner-up in the ‘21 Daytona 500.

6. Michael McDowell (+4000 via FanDuel)

Michael McDowell may not have the same caliber of equipment as some of the sport's other heavyweight teams, but that all goes out the window on the superspeedways. Of course, most observers recall his breakthrough win in The Great American Race two years ago. However, he's also achieved consistent success at Daytona. Toss out two recent DNFs and he averaged an 11th-place finish in his last eight starts.

5. Bubba Wallace (+1800 via DraftKings)

Last year, Bubba Wallace finished runner-up in the Daytona 500 for the second time. Since 2018, he owns the best average finish (12.2) of any driver who started all 10 Cup Series races at Daytona over that span. Few drivers today are as savvy in the draft as Wallace. Having come oh, so close on multiple occasions, could this be the year he breaks through and reaches victory lane?

4. Joey Logano (+1600 via FanDuel)

The defending NASCAR Cup Series Champion also triumphed in the first Bluegreen Vacations Duel race Thursday night. Combine that performance with a strong history at the track and Joey Logano should be a factor in the Daytona 500. It's also noteworthy that he drives for Team Penske. Penske Fords have a knack for working brilliantly together as a team in the draft.

3. Denny Hamlin (+1300 via DraftKings)

Last year was a rough one at Daytona International Speedway for Denny Hamlin. He got caught up in wrecks in both races and finished 37th and 25th, respectively. Of course, those results don't reflect his career track record, which includes three wins in The Great American Race (2016, ‘19, ‘20). Even when he doesn’t win outright, Hamlin regularly finishes near the front. He's impossible to count out Sunday.

2. Ryan Blaney (+1200 via DraftKings)

Ryan Blaney emerged as a popular choice heading into this year’s Daytona 500 and for good reason. Some look at this year’s race from the revenge angle. Blaney could’ve easily won a year ago, but instead chose to push Penske teammate Austin Cindric to victory. He's had great success on the superspeedways including multiple outright wins at Talladega. Blaney also recorded a third-place finish in his duel race Thursday night.

1. Brad Keselowski (+2000 via FanDuel)

Brad Keselowski’s first year as a driver-owner had plenty of ups and downs. One of the highs was a top-10 finish in the Daytona 500. Keselowski is never one to shy away from racing aggressively at the superspeedways. That kind of high-risk, high-reward mentality could put him over the edge.

Keselowski showed he'll once again be a factor by finishing fourth in the second duel race Thursday night. With a full season of adjusting to his new role and plenty of allies in the Ford camp, look for a strong run out of the No. 6 car Sunday.

Daytona 500 power rankings made 2/17/2023 at 2:15 p.m. ET

Daytona 500 Race info

Date: Sunday, Feb. 18, 2 p.m. ET 
Location: Daytona International Speedway, Daytona, FL
How to watch: Fox
Defending champ: Austin Cindric

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