Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal Soccer Pick: Gunners Odds Offer Good Betting Price for this Weekend EPL Fixture

Lee Phelps

Friday, February 20, 2015 7:40 PM GMT

Crystal Palace continiue their push for safety in the Premier League, while Arsenal strive for another top four finish. Lee Phelps has all the odds and has free picks from the betting on the game.

On the opening weekend of the Premier League Crystal Palace pushed Arsenal really close, with a point denied by a last minute Aaron Ramsey winner at The Emirates.

It’s been a topsy turvy season ever since for the Eagles, with Neil Warnock coming and then going again, before the move which looks like it should secure their top flight survival, bringing Alan Pardew in.

Meanwhile Arsenal are slowly gaining momentum to bag yet another top four finish, but they do have a Champions League last 16 match looming, although they generally warm up well for them with a league win.

Crystal Palace are trading at +400 soccer odds and Arsenal are trading on -125 soccer odds.

 

Crystal Palace
I was at the Palace training ground this week with William Hill TV filming the team’s captain Mile Jedinak. He was away with Australia at the Asia Cup when the new manager was appointed and told me how much he noticed the change in atmosphere on his arrival back in London. He was also adamant they are not looking at the 13 points they need to stay in the division, but rather adhering to the old cliché of taking each game as it comes: “Look, it’s tricky to do that because three points can come along unexpectedly, so you should try to get points in every match. We’re always confident we will stay in this league." added the Eagles skipper.

Under Pardew the relegation candidates have picked up four points from three home games, scoring three goals. It’s fair to say they have been better on the road, where they can use their pace and counter attack.

I looked into Palace’s attacking stats at Selhurst Park and their opponents’ defensive qualities and found an interesting pattern. When a visiting team allows an average of 13 or more shots on their goal, Palace tend to match that or better it, but when they came up against Newcastle and Southampton, who average under 12, they only managed seven and six shots respectively.

I looked at how they fared against Chelsea and Liverpool, who are also among the stingiest in terms of allowing attempts on their goal and Palace also dropped under the average.

You guessed where I’m going with this didn’t you? Arsenal allow their opponents 12 per shots game, so if the stats are to be trusted, Palace won’t have enough efforts on goal to win this game.

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Arsenal
The Gunners haven’t won back-to-back away games all season in the league, neither have they lost successive matches. In fact their opening two draws on the road are the only consecutive results in common all season. The form reads DDWLWLWLDWLWL so if you like following patterns a win is next!

We can usually rely on Arsene Wenger’s team to score and they have bagged two more goals in all but two away matches (Chelsea and Southampton), so I can see that trend continuing. If you look at the recent head-to-head records, they have scored exactly two goals in each of the last three meetings with their London rivals.

 

Soccer picks
For my soccer pick I’m going for an Arsenal win here and at 1.83 (5/6) I think it’s a decent enough price on its own, but I do think Palace are capable of scoring especially if Wenger’s men  have a sneaky on their Champions League encounter.

The away win with both teams scoring is 4.0 (3/1) while Arsenal and over 2.5 goals in the game is 2.9 (19/10). Being a wimp and given the stats I detailed about Palace against the better defences, I’ll take the over 2.5 bet so a 3-0 win would land it too.

Free soccer pick: Arsenal win and Over 2.5 goals in the match 2.9 (19/10)

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