Cross-Sports Props: Pacquiao-Mayweather Betting & Kentucky Derby

Jason Lake

Friday, April 24, 2015 3:59 PM GMT

If the Super Bowl can do it, so can the Fight of the Century. The boxing odds for the May 2 Manny Pacquiao-Floyd Mayweather Jr. bout now include cross-sport props for the 2015 Kentucky Derby, also on May 2.

Now we’re talking. The props market for the big May 2 fight between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. has been growing in leaps and bounds, looking more and more like what we’d normally see at the Super Bowl. And now we’ve reached a new level: The first cross-sport props are up on the boxing odds board at SportsInteraction. It just so happens that the 2015 Kentucky Derby also takes place on May 2. And wouldn’t you know it, there’s a horse in the projected field named Itsaknockout.

Well, that’s too good to pass up. So here’s a special prop for you: If Itsaknockout wins the Derby and the Pacquiao-Mayweather fight ends in a knockout (KO or TKO), you get paid out at +2000. Sound good? Well, Itsaknockout is a 40-1 outsider on the Kentucky Derby betting market at Bovada, so we’re a bit skeptical. But let’s take a look at what else the boxing odds have to offer.

 

Far From Over wins Derby and rematch announced before end of 2015: +4500
We’ve already discussed the likelihood of seeing Mayweather-Pacquiao II “within one year,” as the prop is worded at 888Sport, where YES is priced at +200. If it happens, the rematch would likely take place in September, so the wording of the prop isn’t too troublesome. Alas, Far From Over is off the Triple Crown trail after suffering a condylar fracture of the left hind leg during his Mar. 28 workout.

 

I Spent It wins Derby and Mayweather wins: +5000
This bet looks like it would be fun – if I Spent It were in the projected field at Churchill Downs. The 3-year-old colt never even made it onto the Triple Crown trail after finishing sixth at an allowance race on Mar. 18. That was going to be his prep for the Arkansas Derby, but I Spent It hasn’t raced since. Oh well.

Familiarize yourself with All Prop Bets for Mayweather vs. Pacquiao

Far Right wins Derby and Pacquiao wins with right-hand KO: +25000
Here’s one sports pick that actually has a chance of coming true. But let’s do the math: Far Right is a 33-1 long shot to win the Derby, and Pacquiao is +1100 to win by knockout. Multiplying those gets you up to nearly +40000, and that’s without factoring in that Pacquiao is a southpaw. At least Far Right brings some betting value after finishing second to American Pharaoh at the Arkansas Derby.

Well, that was a bit underwhelming, to be honest. But there are some other Derby-related props up on the board at SIA, and they’re not quite as exotic as the aforementioned specials. These four bets fall under the “Which will be higher?” format:

Kentucky Derby Full Card All Sources Handle

–182

Floyd Mayweather Jr. Share of Purse

+130

Kentucky Derby All Sources Handle

–250

Manny Pacquiao Share of Purse

+175

Kentucky Derby Nielsen Rating

–6.0, –120

US/Canada PPV Buys (millions)

+6.0, –120

Total Households Watching Derby (millions)

–12.0, –120

US/Canada PPV Buys (millions)

+12.0, –120

 

Boxing Betting Verdict
As for the PPV stuff, we’ve expressed our concerns about this fight reaching the posted total of 3.15 million buys. But that might not matter much: Last year’s Derby drew an overnight rating of 10.1, bringing in a reported 15.3 million households. We’ll take the Derby Nielsen rating at those odds, thank you kindly.There’s some interesting stuff in there. Mayweather is supposed to earn 60 percent of the purse to Pacquiao’s 40 percent, and that purse is estimated to hit $300 million. Last year’s handle on the Kentucky Derby itself was $124.66 million, with the entire card bringing $180.75 million. We’d definitely think about throwing down a few clams on Mayweather at +130, especially without a crowd favorite like California Chrome in this year’s Derby field.

Free Boxing Pick: Take Kentucky Derby Nielsen Rating –6.0, –120 at Sports Interaction