Saturday’s the big day: the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby. Oh, and the big fight between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, Jr. Looks like the boxing odds have shifted on these cross-sport prop bets.
Twice a year, sports bettors enter the Nexus. In October, you get the NFL, college football, the World Series, and the start of the NBA and NHL regular seasons. In May, you get the NBA and NHL playoffs, plus baseball and all the “summer” sports. It’s a wonderful life. But this Saturday, we get much, much more. We also get the Kentucky Derby and the “Fight of the Century” between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, Jr. It’s going to be insane.
Don’t cross the streams… whoops, too late. We’ve already previewed the cross-sport props market for the Big Fight and the Kentucky Derby, and the boxing odds didn’t look quite right for some of the bets on offer. Sure enough, things have changed since then. Let’s take another look and see if there’s anything more worth adding to our sports picks this Saturday.
Games Without Frontiers
The biggest correction on the odds board is with the prop involving the delightfully named Itsaknockout, a Todd Pletcher horse who most recently finished fourth at the Grade 1 Florida Derby. The prop in question would have paid out at +2000 if Itsaknockout had won the Kentucky Derby, and the Big Fight had ended in a KO or TKO. One problem: Itsaknockout was a 40-1 long shot on the Derby futures market at Bovada.
Problem solved. The boxing odds have shifted dramatically since our preview; as we go to press, the prop now pays out at +12500. That’s a bit more like it. Also, now that the field is set for Saturday, Bovada’s Kentucky Derby Advance lines are out, and Itsaknockout has improved to 30-1 on the Morning Line. Do we have a bet?
100% Pure Florida
Perhaps. There isn’t a specific prop on our odds board that asks if the fight will end in a KO or TKO; however, there is one that asks if the fight will go the distance, and NO is priced at +250. There could be a technical draw or a No Contest, but the chances of either of those outcomes is slim enough to ignore for our purposes. We’re in “ballpark figure” territory anyway. If you multiply 30-1 (an implied probability of 3.23 percent) by +250 (28.57 percent), you get the equivalent of about +10750. Not bad.
So let’s check back in with our four-legged hero. The post positions for the Kentucky Derby were drawn on Wednesday, and after Stanford (another Pletcher horse) was scratched on Thursday, Itsaknockout ended up with lucky No. 13. Avoiding the outside posts definitely helps his Derby chances. But Itsaknockout is going to need all the help he can get. He finished 21 lengths behind Materiality at the Florida Derby, and this will be his first career race away from Gulfstream Park. Itsaknockout doesn’t carry a lot of betting value at 30-1. Still, if you want to take a flier on a cross-sport prop, the odds are still within reason – and it’ll no doubt be entertaining.
The other big shift with the cross-sport props involves Far Right, trained by Ron Moquett and coming out of the No. 19 hole on Saturday. That’s not a very good draw, although I’ll Have Another did manage to win from there in 2012. Far Right has improved from 33-1 on the futures market to 30-1 on the Morning Line.
It doesn’t matter. This prop asked to combine a win by Far Right with a Manny Pacquiao victory via right-hand KO. The odds were +25000 when we did our preview; they’ve been cut in half to +12500 at press time. Pacquiao is holding steady at +1100 to win by knockout (neither hand specified), so if we didn’t like our chances at +25000, we’re even less inclined to shell out at half the payout. Go with Itsaknockout instead if you want to get your cross-sport props on.