Coppa Italia Soccer Picks: Udinese vs. Fiorentina

Nila Amerova

Tuesday, February 4, 2014 1:54 PM GMT

Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2014 1:54 PM GMT

The Coppa Italia enters the penultimate round with Udinese and Fiorentina setting up the first semi-final clash, set to kick off on Tuesday. Find out what odds are currently trading across sportsbooks and where the value is to be had.

Udinese at the disadvantage

Udinese enter the semi-final clash at the disadvantage, listed at +180 soccer odds or thereabouts across sportsbooks for the first leg of their clash with Fiorentina. They are also the massive underdogs of the competition to win it all at +600 at Bet365.

Last year, Fiorentina dumped Udinese out of Coppa Italia in the R16, marking their third straight win over the Bianconeri at the time across all competitions. Since then however, the hosts haven’t lost to Fiorentina, beating them 3-1 on January 1st in their domestic reverse last season and 1-0 on November 11th in domestic action this season. Revenge will be surely on Udinese’s agenda in this semi-final clash.

Udinese’s disadvantaged soccer betting odds are largely explained by a modest season in Serie A that sees them in 14th place following a 7-2-13 mark and 23 points in 22 laps. Most worrisome for their fans is the dodgy goal difference tally that stands at a -10, thanks to just 22 goals scored and 32 conceded – an average of a goal a game and 1.45 goals conceded per game.

Recent form doesn’t provide good reading as well. Udinese have mustered up a 3-0-4 mark since the New Year across all competitions. In Serie A, they opened the second half of the season with a four-game losing streak. Only last weekend, did they finally get a “W” in their column with a 2-0 victory over Bologna. Not quite the ringing endorsement for their chances in this competition, yet they’ve somehow managed to get to the semi-final round. Can they turn the odds in their favour?

Fiorentina at the dubious advantage

Fiorentina are sat pretty fourth in Serie A, courtesy of a solid 12-5-5 record and 41 points though 22 laps around the league. Solid form that they’ve also carried through Coppa Italia in order to reach the semi-finals.

Yet, in spite of that, they are listed as the notional favourites, on the short side of even money at +150 at Bet365 to win outright in the first leg. A market price that stands in stark contrast to their odds to win the competition outright, which are listed at +200 futures odds, co-favourites with Roma to win it all.

That they are on the road probably has something to do with this market stance. Moreover, it’s a two-legged tilt, so winning the first leg is not necessarily the be all and end all of the semi-final round. As well, the stakes are high with a spot in the final on the line. At this stage, anything can happen in a competition like this. They can’t take Udinese for granted, which sportsbooks wisely acknowledge by a conservative betting market.

Fortunately, for Fiorentina backers however, road form has been quite good in league action. They boast a 6-2-4 mark on the road, which is almost as good as their home form that stands at 6-3-1 to date. Perhaps, the best aspect about the visitors is their strength from top to bottom. They aren’t shy on offense, having scored 40 goals this season – four shy of Napoli and five shy of Roma’s tally. What’s more, defending has been solid, as they’ve conceded just 24 goals through 22 laps.

Although Fiorentina are coming off a defeat to middleweights Cagliari, overall recent form is a commendable narrative – a nine-game undefeated streak (7-2-0), which includes five straight wins, the last four of which were clean sheets in a row.

[gameodds]10/256570/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Soccer Betting Verdict: Indeed Coppa Italia is the lone bright spot on Udinese’s otherwise mildly disappointing season. They are within touching distance of the final however so they can’t be dismissed out of hand even if sportsbooks send them into the first leg as the so-called home underdogs.

With home advantage and everything to play for yet they could prove to be the smart soccer pick at +180 to win the first leg. In fact, if Udinese are to have a shot at the final they have to win the first leg. The pressure is all on them therefore but they know better than anybody else does what the stakes are.

A defeat at home would spell disaster to what has been their only promising run this season; as well it would mark an uphill battle few in sports betting circles would back with any confidence. The draw, which is trading at +225 soccer odds, would leave all to be decided in the second leg and wouldn’t necessarily be a catastrophe, but it would leave them with all to do in Fiorentina.

If Fiorentina are one of top two favourites to win the competition at +200 at Bet365, a market price that is underscored by their odds to emerge from the semis at -275 at Bet365, wouldn’t it logically follow then that they should be the smart choice for your soccer picks to beat Udinese in the first leg at +150. Why leave all to do in the second leg when the opportunity to rubber stamp your invitation to the Coppa Italia finale is on hand.

Soccer Free Picks: Fiorentina at +150 to win outright
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