Copa America Soccer Picks: Argentina to Win Under 2.5 Goals vs. Paraguay

Lee Phelps

Monday, June 29, 2015 4:36 PM GMT

Will we finally see the Argentinian superstars cut loose or can Paraguay do some more giant-killing? William Hill's Lee Phelps has been looking at the odds for his free betting pick.

On the face of it this should be an open and shut case for the tournament favorites Argentina. The World Cup runners-up face a Paraguay team who love the Copa America and have dumped Brazil out in the quarter finals.

 

Argentina
Messi and Co had to dig in to get past a Colombia team intent on thwarting their attacking play and once again demonstrated the ability to ‘tough it out’. Unfortunately, from my point of view, it is an Argentina we see all too often, rather than one which has unbelievable talent but doesn’t allow itself to use it.

Way back on game day one, they raced into a 2-0 lead, but were pegged back to 2-2 by their semi-final opponents and it’s as if that experience has led them to tighten up again. They have beaten Uruguay and Jamaica 1-0 and then came the goalless encounter with Colombia.

Since the new coach took over they have won nine and drawn one of 12 and have won three and drawn one of their last four against the Paraguayans.

 

Paraguay
Paraguay kept a clean sheet in their win over Jamaica, which was the same result Argentina managed. They also came from behind to draw 1-1 with Uruguay, before the 1-1 draw with Brazil.

They are unbeaten in the competition, were runners-up in 2011 and will be full of confidence having drawn with Argentina already.

I find it hard to see the Argentinians being slack enough to let a two goal lead go this time and can see a tight game.

 

Soccer picks
If you look at the head-to-heads this fixture equals goals. The last four scores read: 2-2, 5-2, 3-1 and 4-2, but I’m looking at under 2.5 goals here at 1.16 (8/13). I really can’t see Paraguay knocking both Brazil and Argentina out, so for my soccer pick, I’m taking Messi and Co to win with less than three goals in the match at 2.8 (9/5).

Free soccer pick: Argentina win and under 2.5 goals 2.8 (9/5)

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