Copa America Picks: Argentina vs Venezuela Betting Overview

Nikki Adams

Friday, June 17, 2016 12:00 PM GMT

Argentina are expected to advance into the semis without too much fuss, that is if the soccer odds were any indication. Do the bookies have it right? Here’s our take with soccer picks.

Pre-tournament favourites Argentina eye semis
Pre-tournament favourites Argentina are expected to advance into the semi-finals of Copa America Centenario without any resistance. So imply the soccer odds as Argentina have the quarterfinal with Venezuela firmly cornered in their camp. Priced as high as -419 to win in 90 minutes with The Greek, Argentina are what most handicappers would refer to as a sure-thing according to the market. 

To be fair, few would disagree on that score. Argentina are only one of the best teams in the world right now, having reached the World Cup final In Brazil (l. to Germany) and the 2015 Copa America final (l. to Chile). In South American World Cup qualifying they are second behind joint leaders Uruguay and Ecuador and just two points adrift.

The measure of the Albiceleste lies in the star-studded cast that includes arguably the best player in the world right now, twinkle-toed Lionel Messi. But the team boasts stellar depth with several standout names on the bench that ply their trade at some of the best football clubs across Europe, such as Higuain, Lavezzi and Aguero, to name a few.

Importantly, these household names have come to play at Copa America, delivering on their pedigree and quality as they fly their nation’s flag high in the USA. Argentina underscores their favourable outlook at this first hurdle of the knockouts with a winning run in group play. They are the only side to win all three matches – defeating defending champions Chile 2-1, Panama 5-0 and Bolivia 3-0. Tough to argue with any of it.

 


 

Venezuela the surprise package of the tournament
Often tournaments deliver a Cinderella and shoe fits for Venezuela at Copa America, an outsider in pre-tournament betting markets that wasn’t even expected to make the knockouts, truth be told.

Venezuela emerges into the knockouts against the soccer odds, finishing second in group C at the expense of Uruguay (second favourite in group C betting markets at the start of the tournament). Uruguay were a huge disappointment in the tournament considering they current lead CONMEBOL standings in the race for a World Cup 2018 spot. Venezuela simply capitalised in a group that included Mexico and lightweights Jamaica.

It’s hard to see Venezuela go much further in the competition given the momentous obstacle that stands in their way. Hence, they are quite correctly matched as the outrageous underdogs in the four-digit range. Most sportsbooks are hanging a Venezuela win at +100 to +1200 soccer odds, a bet that only the foolhardy would consider or a blindly loyal national fan. That’s not to be churlish, it’s simply a reflection of the low probability they would mastermind the upset.

Even a draw is backed out to +500 soccer odds or higher, which goes to show just how hard keeping pace with Argentina’s lethal attacking front or, for that matter, shutting them down, is going to be. In some respects, you could say the writing is on the wall or in this case on the soccer betting board.

Match Betting Tips and Soccer Picks
Obviously, backing an Argentina win is the only realistic soccer pick in this match but at their current price it’s not worth the tickle. The return on investment so nominal. So in an endeavour to find value soccer picks, we’ve come up with a few best bets to bet on.

Argentina have conceded just one goal in the competition so far and that was to better opposition in Chile. As such, a win to nil at -102 is our top recommended bet. Another bet to consider is the Over 2.5 goals at -150, which is decent value considering the lethal attacking front of the Albiceleste.

Additional bets to consider: Lionel Messi is a player that will be counted on to score and lift his side to victory you’d think, so integral is he to the nation’s success on the international arena and he’s available at -105 to score anytime with bet365. Another player to spot is Ezequiel Lavezzi, who is having a good tournament and he’s available at +140 to score anytime.

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Free Soccer Picks:
Argentina to win to nil -102 at BetVictor
Over 2.5 at -150 with Bet365
Lionel Messi to score anytime at -105 with bet365
Ezequiel Lavezzi to score anytime at +140