Copa America Free Pick: Expect Peru To Win To Nil When Facing Bolivia in Quarterfinals

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, June 23, 2015 2:12 PM GMT

Every once in awhile an easy pick pops onto the betting board and that’s the case here with La Blanquirroja against Bolivia in a game where some money may be made from some different angles.

Odds Overview
Bolivia vs. Peru [Thursday, June 25—20:30] (BeIN Sports USA, BeIN Sports en Español, BeIN SPORTS CONNECT, Fubo TV (USA), Premier Sports (UK): 7:30 p.m. ET/8 p.m. PT): Group C runners-up Peru will play Group A second-place side Bolivia at Estadio Municipal Germán Becker in Temeco on Thursday in the second of four Copa América Quarterfinal matches that will be played on consecutive days (June 24-27). Oddsmakers here have made Peru solid +130 favorites over fellow South Americans Bolivia (+260) with the Draw set at +210 (Bwin). The Total Goals in most sportsbooks here will be set at 2, but at 2½, the Under is priced at -217 (Over +175, BetVictor) in select sportsbooks, and may be worth a look with the big plus despite this tournament’s propensity for low-scoring games. Some Prop wagers for this game from Chile on Thursday: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ +120, ‘No’ -153 (BetVictor); Draw No Bet: Peru -187 (BetVictor best odds), Bolivia +150 (Bet365 best odds); To Win To Nil: Peru +220, Bolivia +450 (BetVictor); and, To Qualify: Peru -166, Bolivia +125 (Bwin).

 

Bolivia
Bolivia made it to these Quarterfinals by virtue of it being the second-place team in Group B (1-1-1, 3 GF-7 GA, 4 points), and La Verde (The Green) are fortunate to have been in a group with tournament hosts Chile, Ecuador—which Bolivia beat 3-2 for its lone win—and a B-side Mexico team. Against El Tri, Bolivia earned that valuable 1 point that put them into this Knockout Stage with a 0-0 Draw in one of the most lackluster displays of soccer in the history of the sport. My apologies to anyone who wasted those two hours of their precious Lives as at least the movie Snow Dogs had a plot, whereas this Copa América opener for both clubs made children who haven’t even been born yet weep for despair of the pure nothingness of this particular event. Stink, stank, stunk don’t cut it, bruh. Anyway, Bolivian Manager Mauricio Soria has primarily a bunch of players from Bolivian Professional Football League Liga de Fútbol Profesional Boliviano) on his squad, but the mere fact this team is even alive at this po8int in this tourney and forcing a handicap is mind-blowing. Here is the simple handicap: La Verde have no chance for me. None. Zilch. Nil. Zero, Nada. Nunca is what Bolivia (+8000 best odds to win Copa América, BetVictor) will get here and home is where they will go after this game. It’s that simple. And expect GK Romel Quiñónez (Club Bolívar) to be tested thoroughly here and to maybe face upwards of 15 shots on Thursday for Bolivia (FIFA code: BOL). In its 3-2 win over Ecuador, Bolivia got 1st Half goals from captain  Ronald Raldes, ex-Sweden U21 rep Martin Smedberg-Dalence and Marcelo Moreno, and then held on for the win as Ecuador rallied for 2 goals in the 2nd Half. This team has improved, but still has major trouble scoring goals and is extremely lucky to have advanced to this point.

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Peru
The lucky runners up in Group C (1-1-1, 2 GF-2 GA), Peru and Head Coach Ricardo Gareca fell into this extremely Lucky Spot—getting to face Bolivia in the Quarterfinals—by drawing 0-0 against Colombia on Sunday in its Group Stage finale. And with just two goals—an early  Christian Cuevas tally on a David Luiz mistake in a 2-1 loss to Brazil and a 72nd-minute game-winner from Claudio Pizarro in a 1-0 triumph for Los Incas against Venezuela in their lone win—against its three opponents in the Group Stage, it would to be going out on a limb a bit to assume that generally low-scoring soccer clubs like ones in South America would suddenly be able to explode for 3 or 4 goals after such an anemic Group Stage. But the reality here is that Peru’s opponents in Group C (Colombia, Brazil, Venezuela) are collectively way more talented than the one’s Bolivia (Ecuador, Mexico, Chile) right now and Peru (FIFA code: PER) will be waiting to explode and should get at least 2 goals through Pizarro (Bayern Munich), Striker Paolo Guerrero (Clube de Regatas do Flamengo), Jefferson Farfán (FC Schalke 04) and Cuevas. Peru is a much better team than most people think, and although still a longshot to win the tourney (+3300 best odds to win Copa América, BetVictor), Los Incas are more than capable of dismantling La Verde here on Thursday night in Temeco. After playing Brazil and Colombia in the Group Stage, getting to play Bolivia in this Knockout Stage may seem like a really cool breeze on a hot Summer night for upstart Peru.

 

Series History and Conclusions
Peru is 19-12-13 (65 GF-43 GA) overall in international play against their South American counterparts Bolivia, and in Copa América play, Peru is 7-4-3 against Bolivia (22 GF-15 GA) and an impressive 5-1-1 (13 GF-5 GA) against La Verde here at Home in Peru. Bolivia has been outscored 12-3 in its L3 international matches (including this Copa América), with all 3 tallies coming in that aforementioned Group Stage game versus Ecuador, so, playing the ‘Peru To Win To Nil’ Prop wager if available is advised here (Peru +220, BetVictor) as is the ‘No’ in the Both Teams To Score prop (-153, BetVictor), with Peruvian GK Pedro Gallese likely registering the Clean Sheet for Los Incas. Almost, and maybe, as many goals (3 or 4) should be scored by Peru in this contest as were scored in all three of the Group Stage games for the La Blanquirroja as Pizarro, Farfán, Cuevas and Guererro, among others, should be able to provide more than enough offense here against Bolivia.

 

Predicted Final Score: Bolivia 0 Peru 3

Copa America Soccer Picks: Peru +130 (Bwin), Over 2½ +175 (BetVictor), Peru To Win To Nil +220 (BetVictor), Both Teams To Score (‘No’) -153 (BetVictor)

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