Copa América Centenario: Colombia vs. Chile Sharp Soccer Picks

Tuesday, June 21, 2016 1:48 PM GMT

James Rodriguez and Colombia face fellow South American side Chile, at historic Soldier Field in Chicago on Wednesday night in the second Copa América Centenario Semifinals match.

Copa América Semifinals Odds Preview
The second Copa América Centenario Semifinal takes place on Wednesday night at Soldier Field in Chicago and will see Chile playing Colombia in a match which seemingly could go a number of ways. Sportsbooks currently have Chile in a broad +137 (Bet365) to +160 (William Hill) range with Colombia to be found anywhere from +181 (Betfred) to +210 (Betfair) and the Draw priced around +200 (Bet365). The Total (Goals) here has been set at 2½, with the Under at -162 and the Over at +125 (Bet365). The First Half odds see Chile lined at +220, Colombia at +265 and a Draw favored at +105 (Bet365). Some Props: To Qualify (Advance): Chile -125, Colombia +100 (Bet365); Both Teams To Score: Yes -105, No -125 (Bet365); Correct Score: 0-0 +770 (188Bet), 1-1 +550 (BetVictor), Colombia 1-0, +750 (Paddy Power), Chile 1-0, +650 (BetVictor), Chile 2-1, 10/1 (Boylesports), Chile 3-1, 25/1 (Boylesports); Total Corners: 8½ Over -118, Under -118 (888Sport).
The two Semifinal winners will meet in the 2016 Copa América Final on Sunday, June 26 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey (Fox Sports 1 USA, Fox Soccer 2GO, Fox Sports GO, fuboTV, Univision Deportes USA, Univision USA (US), Premier Sports (UK), 8 p.m. EDT/ 5 p.m. PDT) with the Third Place game to be held at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on Saturday (Fox Sports 1 USA, Fox Soccer 2GO, Fox Sports GO, fuboTV, Univision Deportes USA, Univision USA (US), Premier Sports (UK), 8 p.m. EDT/ 5 p.m. PDT). We’ll have in-depth previews and soccer picks for both matches here in this corner of Cyberspace.

 

Colombia
Colombia (+550 to win Copa América, Paddy Power) and Head Coach José Pékerman advanced to this Semifinals match by beating Peru, 4-3 in a Penalty Kick Shootout at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Friday night after the Quarterfinal match ended tied 0-0 after 90 minutes. (There is no Extra Time in the Quarterfinal and Semifinal Rounds of the Copa América.) Now James Rodriguez (Real Madrid), starting GK David Ospina (Arsenal) and Colombia will play Chile at Soldier Field in Chicago on Wednesday night in an all-CONMEBOL Final and showdown between FIFA’s 3rd- (Colombia) and 5th-ranked (Chile) teams worldwide. And with Carlos Bacca (AC Milan; Anytime Goalscorer +240, 888Sport), Rodriguez (Anytime Goalscorer +280, Betfair), Dayro Moreno (Club Tijuana, Anytime Goalscorer +300, Betway), Juan Cuadrado and others, La Tricolor have some decent players on the attack and with GK Ospina, a decent enough Defense, but Mexico—which lost 7-0—put more pressure on Chile then Peru did on Colombia in the Quarterfinals. In that match against Peru, Head Coach Pékerman had a Starting XI of: GK Ospina; Defenders Cristian Zapata, Santiago Arias, Farid Díaz and Jeison Murillo; a MF of Carlos Sánchez, Edwin Cardona, Daniel Torres, Juan Cuadrado and James Rodríguez with Carlos Bacca at Forward. La Tricolori had 9 total Shots but just 1 of them actually a Shot On Goal in the 90 minutes of play against Peru, which had 4 Shots and also just 1 ending up on Target. Colombia connected on all four of its Penalty Kicks en route to advancing here with Rodríguez, Cuadrado, Mayro Moreno and Sebastian Pérez all connecting on their attempts in that order and gritty Peru missing both its third (Miguel Trauco) and (last) fourth (Christian Cueva) attempts.

 

Chile
Chile (+375 to win Copa América, Betfair) snapped Mexico’s 22-match unbeaten streak on Saturday night with a 7-0 battering of El Tri at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California as Edson Puch (16’, 88’), Eduardo Vargas (44’, 52’, 58, 74’) and Alexis Sánchez (49’) all scored for La Roja in a highly anticipated match which was supposed to be close and a showdown of powers, but ended up being an embarrassment as the 2nd Half did a rain dance on Mexico’s heads and poor (late surprise starting) GK Guillermo Ochoa deserved Hazard Pay for the match when it mercifully ended. In his Starting XI against Mexico, Chile Head Coach Juan Antonio Pizzi had: GK Claudio Bravo; D’s Gonzalo Jara, Gary Medel, José Fuenzalida and Jean Beausejour; a MF of Charles Aránguiz, Arturo Vidal, Alexis Sánchez and Marcelo Díaz; and Eduardo Vargas and Edson Puch up top at Forwards. With the defending 2015 Copa América champions getting all seven goals from its attack, feeling fluid and doing so in a game which actually had some flow—be it one-way most of the match—the ultimate favorites here are the right side to be favored and if you saw some of the UK opening numbers when posted after this matchup was set, you actually saw Colombia favored and by a significant odds margin with Chile available at +200 and up in a couple of spots, before reason settled in and those numbers were either gobbled up or taken down by the sportsbooks faster than The Road Runner peeling away from Wile E. Coyote. Poof!

Conclusions, Weather Forecast, Form and Picks
Like it did against Peru, Colombia could actually have some trouble getting a significant number of decent shots on target and in Claudio Bravo (FC Barcelona), Chile has the better GK here compared to Ospina, who is Arsenal’s backup (to starter Petr Cech). If it continues to flow like it has of late, outscoring opponents 13-2 since losing to Argentina in its Group D opener (2-1), Chile (LLLWWW) could possibly have 2 goals on the scoreboard by Halftime (if the forecasted Rain isn’t too stifling) and it is the more (Offensively) Confident team heading in here, with Puch (Anytime Goalscorer +210, 888Sport), Eduardo Vargas (Anytime Goalscorer +245, NetBet), Alexis Sánchez (Anytime Goalscorer +210, 888Sport) and Arturo Vidal (Anytime Goalscorer +333, Bet365) the most likely suspects to score (and to want to score) here against Columbia (WWWWWLD) which might come in a little frustrated after being stifled by Peru.

The Weather Forecast for Chicago on Wednesday is currently calling for Thunderstorms in the evening (90% Chance Rain), a Low of 70° with fairly strong WNW Winds of 10 to 20 mph, so crappy enough possibly to keep a goal off the scoreboard here due to difficulty with footing, sight, comfort and the ball moving to much if those forecasted Wind speeds are actually closer to 20 mph. And maybe this is why soccer odds makers have heavily juiced the Under (-162, Bet365) at 2½ Total (Goals)—that, combined maybe with the 0-0 scoreline and 1 Shot on Target by Colombia in the Quarterfinals. A deeper dive of Colombia’s L6 major international competitions before playing Peru (COL 2-3 CRC, COL 2-1 PAR, USA 0-2 COL, COL 3-1 HAI, COL 3-1 ECU, BOL 2-3 COL) reveals a gaudy total of 27 goals being scored—an average of 5.40 gpg—with 5 games going Over a Total posted at 2½. And with 5 of the L7 La Tricolor (major) matches have been played in the United States, this is relevant. Chile (Chile To Score ‘Yes’ -242, 888Sport) should end up having twice, maybe thrice as many quality Shots on Target and again, in Bravo, La Roja has the much better GK compared to Ospina.

Lifetime, Chile is 14-13-10 against Colombia (68 GF-53 GA) while in Copa América play, La Roja is 6-2-2, outscoring Colombia 18-11, but Chile is 1-1-1 vs. La Tricolor at Neutral Sites (4 GF-5 GA) in Copa América play. The last meeting in this tournament between these two came in 2001 in Colombia where the host nation registered a 2-0 Clean Sheet in Group A play while the last time these two met on a pitch in any competition came last year in World Cup qualifiers with the two playing to a 1-1 Draw in Chile. Here, expect GK Bravo to be brilliant and Vidal (Bayern Munich), Sánchez (Arsenal), Vargas (1899 Hoffenheim) and Edson Puch (Necaxa) to shine again at the top of the Chilean attack and if there is any team in this in this Copa América Centenario that’s going to stop legend Lionel and Messi and Argentina (-162 to win Copa América, Bet365), it’s probably this talented Chilean side which can (internationally) hang with anyone, anywhere.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3033385, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Predicted Final Score: Chile 3 Colombia 1
Soccer Picks: Chile +160 & Over 2½ +135 
Prop Picks: Chile Halftime +225, Chile To Score ‘Yes’ -285, Eduardo Vargas Anytime Goalscorer +245 & Chile To Qualify (Advance) -120 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker