Jordan’s WNBA Picks 55-49-6
Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics
Sunday, September 29, 2019 – 03:00 PM EDT
Best Offense Versus Best Defense
The Mystics’ offense has been nothing short of outstanding this season. They have run through the rest of the WNBA with little trouble and now they are three wins away from a championship.
They were able to do away with the talented Aces team with only one loss and Las Vegas was considered one of, if not the best defensive team in the league.
However, the Sun should not be taken lightly and the sportsbooks agree. Even with their huge home-court advantage, the Mystics are only seven-point favorites in Game 1 of the Finals.
Connecticut wasn’t supposed to be here. Chiney Ogwumike forced her way out of town before the season started so she could continue her playing and media career in a bigger market.
In return, they got a 2020 1st round pick, but without one of their best players, the Sun was considered a good team, but not a title contender.
However, with Jonquel Jones turning into a star and the rest of the Sun playing like one of the most cohesive units in all the W, the Sun landed the number two seed in the playoffs and they took care of their former teammate and the Sparks.
However, while they out-worked and out-coached their series against the Sparks, they won’t have the same benefits against the Mystics. With that being said, I do think there is a pathway for the Sun to be a good play in Game 1, but it will take the same effort they showed in the semifinals.
The Sharp Pick
Washington’s offense is almost unstoppable at home, but early on the Sun should be able to get into them and be physical on defense. The Aces had some success doing that, but it only kept them under 90 points in one of their four games.
Connecticut’s defense is not quite as good as Las Vegas’, especially playing on the road, so while these games might get lower scoring as the Finals go on, this first one is going to be a high scoring game.
I could easily see the Sun trying to play faster on offense in order to keep them with enough firepower to stay with the Mystics. Connecticut did beat Washington twice during the regular season, but both were so early in the year that they can hardly be quantified in comparing these two teams now.
That being said, while I do think Connecticut will stay in this game, they will have to do it on offense more than defense. If the Mystics get out to a lead early in the game, which they are extremely good at doing, the Sun will have no choice but to play faster and shoot a lot of three-pointers.
The Mystics are the league’s best three-point team as well, so at home in Game 1 of the Finals, I expect between 85 and 90 points from them. This will lead to the over being the play.