We’ve been trying to get Germany beaten since the Confederations Cup began. Mexico couldn’t do the business in the semi-final so now we must rely on Chile on Sunday in the showpiece.
The bookmakers are convinced that Germany have one hand on the trophy. They are +150 with Betway. Chile are +220 with Matchbook and the draw is +240 with the same. Those are the 90 minutes prices. To lift the trophy, Germany, naturally, are shorter still at -125 with Coral. Chile are +117 (Marathon).
So dear friends, once again we must ride into battle against the might of the Germans. At the odds we have to take them on. It would be folly not to.
That’s because we cannot have Germany priced as if this is a full-strength unit. They are not. Sure, they are a very talented and youthful bunch but Chile are not exactly lukewarm these days, you know, as they are ranked ninth in the world. Germany have lost four of their eight top-15 sides since 2015. And that was their first choice squads.
We are building a very basic value concept then. Chile are value because although the Germans are No 1 the fact that it is a reserve team bridges the gap between the ninth-placed team. They probably meet in the middle. Which means they are as good as each other. It’s obvious in this case you bet on the bigger odds.
Indeed, Chile won the Copa America in 2015 and 2016. So if Germany are the powerhouse of Europe it could be argued Chile are their match from South America.
What we like about Chile is their energy. They have got it in spades. They were like the mail train against Portugal in the semis. They just kept on coming. The tempo they pace their game at is high and this could unsettle Germany who are not used to such speed.
So we are happy to back them to lift the trophy, rather than rely on them to get the job done in 90 minutes. They can be wasteful in front of goal so they may need the extra time to create that one extra chance to get them to the winners’ podium.
As for other bets, more than 2.5 goals at +110 with William Hill. Both teams are hardly watertight at defense. Germany have kept only one cleansheet in that sequence since 2015 while Chile do have a habit of making ridiculous errors at the back.
Regular followers of this column will be on Chile at +275. They were our tournament pick before a ball had been kicked. So those guys only need the goals bet. If you missed it first time, though, dig in.