Complete Rundown of UFC 188 Picks

Jason Lake

Friday, June 12, 2015 10:21 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 12, 2015 10:21 PM UTC

There are 11 fights on Saturday's UFC 188 card in Mexico City. We've got our UFC picks ready for all 11, including the main event between Cain Velasquez and Fabricio Werdum.

Like the song says, Saturday night's all right for fighting. We've got a big PPV card in store for UFC 188 at the Arena Ciudad in Mexico City; let's get right to it and present our UFC picks for each of the 11 fights, using the best prices we can find on the UFC odds board at press time.


Featherweight: Gabriel Benitez (17-4 lifetime) vs. Clay Collard (14-5)
Benitez could cause some trouble here as a southpaw and a submission artist (7.1 per 15 minutes), but Collard is bigger, he's meaner, and he's the more talented fighter.

Free UFC Pick: Take Collard –245 at WagerWeb

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See 50+ UFC 188 Prop Bets

Welterweight: Augusto Montano (15-1) vs. Cathal Pendred (16-2-1)
This is a good spot for Montano as a hometown favorite, although he runs the risk of getting taken to the mat by Pendred (3.11 per 15 minutes). We'll go with Montano's striking and his cardio.

Free UFC Pick: Take Montano –141 at Ladbrokes

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Lightweight: Frank Trevino (12-0) vs. Johnny Case (20-4)
We love Case at 6-foot-1 in this division. He's more active across the board than Trevino, but the underdog has the better striking defense (80 percent) and has yet to taste defeat as a pro. Worth a flyer.

Free UFC Pick: Take Trevino +400 at Island Casino

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Bantamweight: Alejandro Perez (15-5) vs. Patrick Williams (7-4)
We prefer the underdog in this matchup, too, but it's not just a value bet – we actually think Williams will win this fight. His wrestling (4.38 takedowns per 15 minutes) is solid, and Perez isn't very good at defending takedowns (25 percent).

Free UFC Pick: Take Williams +155 at Sportbet

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Lightweight: Efrain Escudero (23-9) vs. Drew Dober (15-6)
There's not much to choose from here. Neither man has had much success in the Octagon, but Dober is a southpaw, and he lands more strikes (3.46 per minute) than Escudero (2.07).

Free UFC Pick: Take Dober –145 at BetCRIS

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Flyweight: Chico Camus (14-5) vs. Henry Cejudo (8-0)
Eating chalk is never fun, but if any of the Mexican fighters are being put in favorable situations, it's Cejudo. The Olympic gold-medallist is a rising star, and while Camus might be underrated, we don't think Dana White would risk exposing his potential meal ticket.

Free UFC Pick: Take Cejudo –900 at William Hill

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Women's Strawweight: Tecia Torres (5-0) vs. Angela Hill (2-0)
The price on Hill has been dropping since we looked at the strawweight division – possibly because of the media attention she's gotten as the UFC's first African-American women's fighter. We'll stick with the favorite.

Free UFC Pick: Take Torres –275 at Pinnacle

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Featherweight: Yair Rodriguez (4-1) vs. Charles Rosa (10-1)
This is a big step up for Rodriguez, and one we don't think he's ready to make quite yet. Rosa is the more polished fighter, still in his prime at age 28, and he nearly beat Dennis Siver (–308) in his UFC debut as a late replacement.

Free UFC Pick: Take Rosa –210 at SportsBetting

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Middleweight: Kelvin Gastelum (10-1) vs. Nate Marquardt (33-14-2)
This could be the end of the line for the 36-year-old Marquardt, who's lost four of his last five fights. Gastelum is a TUF winner and a potential star, although he's been forced to move up to middleweight after failing to cut down twice as a welterweight.

Free UFC Pick: Take Gastelum –430 at SBR

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Lightweight: Gilbert Melendez (22-4) vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-4)
This could be the Fight of the Night. Melendez is the better-rounded fighter of the two, and we'd pick him straight-up, but we'll take Alvarez at this price. Don't be surprised if they just beat on each other for 15 minutes.

Free UFC Pick: Take Alvarez +155 at WagerWeb

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Must Read: UFC 188 Picks: Velasquez vs. Werdum, Who’s Got the Advantage?

Heavyweight: Cain Velasquez (13-1) vs. Fabricio Werdum (19-5-1)
We are a little bit concerned about Velasquez' ability to come back from his injuries, and we're not keen on paying the extra chalk, but we'll stick with our original pick in this case. Velasquez is – or at least was – that damn good.

Free UFC Pick: Take Velasquez –435 at Marathon

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