College Football Picks: Mountain West Championship, Fresno St. vs Boise St.

Megan Rochester

Friday, December 5, 2014 1:39 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 5, 2014 1:39 PM UTC

Boise State is one win against Fresno State away from a fantastic season and one of the finest Bowl Games on January 1st. Get the top plays on the Mountain West Conference Championship game with NCAA Football odds pro Megan Rochester. She is breaking down the details on how to play the spread in their game on Saturday evening. 

Mountain West Conference Championship: Frenso State vs. Boise State
Saturday, Dec. 6, 10:00 PM ET on CBS
Bronco Stadium

The Fresno State Bulldogs are the reigning and only Mountain West Champions as they head into the second annual MWC Title game this year against the Boise State Broncos. However, it’s been a long season for the Bulldogs, and the results of this game are looking higher for the 22nd playoff-ranked Boise State Broncos.


Fresno will face Boise State as the 22 point underdogs for the second time this season on Saturday. Now, let’s breakdown the game for a look at how the College Football odds will most likely result as they go toe-to-toe this weekend.

Easy Road Won’t Make for an Easy Finish   

Fresno only made it into the Mountain West Conference Title game as No. 1 in the West Division because they happened to be the least-worst team in the division. Boise has already beaten four of the teams in the Eastern Division that have proven to be better teams than the Bulldogs.

Yes, Fresno already played Boise State once this season and covered the 18 point spread with a final score of 37-27. However, Boise won the game, and this time around, the they will win over the spread as well. In the last matchup between the Broncos and the Bulldogs, Boise State may have only won by 10, but they outgained Fresno 492 total yards to 313 and 24-12 in first downs. Now, the Broncos will play the same way, but we can expect stronger finishes on the scoring end. 3 touchdowns should be easy for a clearly more dominant team.

Sportsbook Review handicapper Joe Gavazzi stated earlier in the week that any team who rushes and passes for 200 yard, more than their opponent, or any team that double rushes their opponent, has a 75 percent chance of covering the spread. The last game these two teams played in October was a fluke and early in the season. Now the Boise State team is gelling better than ever before.They have been competing with tougher teams than Fresno all season long which has amped up the defensive side of the ball, and they will dominate the offensive game against the mediocre Fresno defense on Saturday.

Motivation Riding with the Broncos

Now that playoffs have come into the picture for college football, bowl games will take form in a new kind of way as well.

The new system states that the highest ranked champion from the Mountain West, Mid-American, American Athletic and Conference USA will play in the coveted Fiesta, Cotton or Peach Bowls on January 1st. Boise State is going to have motivation on their side in this game as they are currently the highest ranked team in the playoff rankings, and will be striving to keep that ranking to rack in one of the best Bowl Game in January.

Fresno, on the other hand, will be less motivated. They think of themselves as just lucky to be in the Conference Title game this year. Most likely, the Bulldogs won’t push their key players full force in a game they are guaranteed to lose because they won’t want to lose any of them to injury before they enter their sealed spot in the (lesser-ranked) bowl game.

Broncos will Command Their Home Field  

Boise State will be coming into this game ready to dominate in every single aspect of the word. They are heading into the contest with a 10-2 SU record, and they have gone 12-2 SU in the last 14 match-ups against Frenso State.

The Bulldogs have won the last 7 games, and on average during that winning streak, they are averaging 51 points per game (while Fresno has only scored more than 35 points twice this season).

Their star-athlete on the team, Jay Ajayi rushed a career high of 229 yards and five touchdowns just last week against Utah State last weekend. He is looking ripe and ready for the game this weekend.

What to Expect

It’s plain and simple. Fresno State simply isn’t going to be able to keep up with the pace of this game that the Broncos will establish early on and keep consistent throughout the entire game. The Broncos are going to be thirsty for a big victory on Saturday to make a statement to the bowl game committee. Lock in your College Football Picks with the Broncos against the 22 point spread for a win in Bronco Stadium this weekend.

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