Chelsea vs. Manchester City Soccer Picks & Predictions

Lee Phelps

Friday, January 30, 2015 6:52 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 30, 2015 6:52 PM GMT

The best two Premier League teams face each other on Saturday, with many calling it a must-win for Manchester City if they are going to upset the odds and win the title. Our tipster agrees and is building that into his free pick betting prediction.

The media will have us believe the Premier League title race will be decided by Saturday night as the two sides in the 'Blue horse race' go head-to-head at Stamford Bridge. The gap between the two is five points, with 15 games (after Saturday) and 45 points up for grabs. So far Chelsea have dropped 14 points and Manchester City 19 in 22 matches. The reason I point these stats out is to show that Saturday isn’t a title decider, but is obviously a very important match.

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Chelsea
If the London Blues win this match they go eight points clear and that is a difficult mountain for the Manchester Blues to climb, but even if they lose I personally think Jose Mourinho’s men will win the title. If you work out how many points they have dropped so far and they maintain the same form, I predict they will finish on 88 points, which would have been enough to win the Premier League in three of the last four years. Manchester United and City won the league with 89 points in 2012/13 and 2011/12.

Turning our attention to this match, Chelsea may be without Cesc Fabregas, Filipe Luis and Diego Costa IF the powers-that-be decide to ban him for the alleged stamps on two Liverpool players. With or without those players, we know Stamford Bridge is a fortress that is rarely breached. Under their Portuguese manager they have of course only lost once in the Premier League and never to one of the ‘big’ teams. The have drawn six times against the elite sides in both of his spells as boss.

This season they have won every single game at home, scoring 24 and conceding three, including wins against Arsenal and Tottenham to nil.

 

Manchester City
Given the situation I described earlier, City simply have to win this game otherwise they will have to rely on Chelsea dropping at least seven points and winning all 15 remaining matches themselves.

Their away record at the big clubs under Manuel Pellegrini isn’t much to write home about either, having failed to beat Arsenal twice, Tottenham and losing at Chelsea 2-1 last season. They have only failed to score on three occasions away from home under his management though and seeing as they have to go for it here, I expect goals. They let them in too of course, with 10 clean sheets in 30 road trips and have only shut one top team out (Manchester United).

The other angle I have here is City’s discipline away from home. They have more booking points than their opponents in eight of their 11 away games. I’ve detailed why I like this bet before, but in a nutshell their tactic revolves around stopping the opposition attacks in the middle of the park by committing niggly foul and eventually the accumulation turns into yellow cards.

 

Soccer picks
I don’t see Chelsea losing this match, they will be delighted with a point or three, so my soccer pick would be the draw on pure value grounds with soccer betting odds of 2.75 (11/4) available. I’d also play the over 2.5 goals at 1.9 (20/23) and Manchester City to have most bookings points, although at the time of writing bookmakers haven’t priced that up yet.

Free soccer pick: Over 2.5 goals 1.9 (20/23)

 

 

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