Champions League Soccer Pick: Borussia Dortmund vs. Juventus

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, March 17, 2015 9:36 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 17, 2015 9:36 PM UTC

Borussia Dortmund will look to overturn a slim edge by Juventus when the pair resume hostilities in Champions League R16 betting at Signal-Iduna Park on Wednesday. Here's a look at the soccer betting market for this clash, complete with soccer picks.

Borussia Dortmund Notional Faves 
It's been a rough season for the Black and Yellows in Bundesliga, but things are starting to look up as they've crawled up the table to tenth place with an 8-6-11 mark and 30 points. As it is, home form is a modest 5-3-4 while road form is a subpar 3-3-7 to date. Needless to say, if they can maintain the recent upsurge in form and continue to dig deep those numbers will improve be season end, surely.

Since a 1-0 loss to Augsburg in February, Jurgen Klopp's side has gone undefeated in German top-flight (four wins and two draws) and have climbed out of the danger zone. Home form has played a pivotal part as they picked up two wins and a draw at Signal-Iduna Park all while scoring seven goals and conceding just two. In fact, their last two home accounts were clean sheets.

That form is auspicious ahead of their second leg and underscores their notional favouritism on the soccer odds board. Borussia Dortmund are priced at +140 to win the second leg while Juventus are priced at +250.

Champions League Survival
Snatching one of the Champions League qualifying spots appears to be a pipedream with just nine games left on the Bundesliga season and a 12-point gap to cover. Therefore, Borussia Dortmund's European dreams and continued participation rely exclusively on a successful campaign in this year's competition all the way to the title. That's a tall order for any club and amounts to a lot of pressure. Borussia Dortmund are currently priced at +3300 to win the Champions League title.

So far, Borussia Dortmund's European campaign has been solid. They emerged winners of Group D with a 4-1-1 record and 13 points (Arsenal with the same record fell into second place because of goal differential). In the R16, they put in an energetic account against Juventus in Turin and seized the all important away goal.

If the second leg is even nearly as gripping as the first leg was, this tie could swing either way. Borussia Dortmund fans will hope that it'll be headed in their direction rather than Juve's.

A look at the Odds to Win the Champions League

Juventus Off Form In Away Matches
Although Borussia Dortmund are favoured at +125 soccer odds to win the second leg, they are the +140 underdogs in futures betting to advance into the quarterfinals. On the flip side, Juventus are the +250 underdogs to win the second leg (and the draw is trading at +240), but they are the runaway favourites at -188 to advance into the quarterfinals.

There are those soccer bettors that would look upon such juxtaposing markets as a contradiction in terms. Are these sports betting lines really a true assessment of this tie or are these just blurred lines?

It's nestled on a 2-1 score to Juventus, but Borussia Dortmund have both the home advantage in the second leg and the away goal. All these facets are recognised in some part by the soccer odds. What the soccer odds don't take into consideration enough is the fact that Juve's road form in Europe leaves a lot to be desired.

In their last ten away games in Europe, they are 3-2-5, which includes a four-game losing streak that was snapped in the last round of group play this season at the expense of mighty Malmo (that's a sarcastic mighty, for those uninitiated). Indeed, to find a truly signature win by Juventus on the road against European opposition, one needs to go back to 2008 when they beat Real Madrid 2-0. That's hardly a ringing endorsement for Juventus and their favourable soccer odds to advance.

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Soccer Betting Verdict
The reality is Borussia Dortmund trail only by a goal in this tie and they have home advantage, two things that they are sure to capitalise on when they host Juventus at Signal-Iduna Park. What's more, as good as Borussia Dortmund have been at home (only three losses in their last 15 home games in European competition), Juventus have been equally abysmal on the road.  Considering Juventus' road form, that they are such faves to advance beggars belief.

 Those are just some of the reasons why we're backing Borussia Dortmund on our soccer picks at +125 soccer odds to win the second leg and at +140 to advance into the knockouts.

Soccer Free Picks: Borussia Dortmund +125 to win and +140 to advance at Bet365.

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