Champions League Picks: Betting Dynamics Favor Real Madrid

Jim Makos

Saturday, May 28, 2016 5:42 PM UTC

Saturday, May. 28, 2016 5:42 PM UTC

Who can predict the winner at this stage? Find out what our expert capper can determine to be the best soccer pick in this UCL finals and cash in tonight!

Champions League Picks: Betting Dynamics Favor Real Madrid
Hours before the Champions League final, handicappers seem to slightly prefer one Spanish team over the other, according to price action of soccer odds.

As predicted, two Madrilenian teams are the Champions League finalists. Real Madrid made it through without conceding a goal against Manchester City, while Atletico Madrid advanced on aggregate score, as Bayern snapped a win in the second semifinal.
Of course these Spanish teams know each other well enough to know their strengths and weaknesses. In the fierce La Liga’s competition they both did extremely well, losing the championship only to Barcelona, who found themselves with just a single point more than Real and three away from Atletico. Let’s not forget that they have met each other in yet another Champions League final three years ago!
As they will be fighting one another for the ultimate soccer trophy in European ground, let us see how bettors have moved the moneyline throughout the season.


Champions League Winner Moneyline
Per our usual tactic, we’ll be comparing the probability charts that derive straight from the actual betting odds, as they are much more meaningful that late in the tournament.
Both charts show an expected strong uptrend, yet neither avoided the bumps. In fact, Real’s chance to win the Champions League diminished significantly in the first rounds, dropping from 15% to 5% momentarily. Since then, it has been only one way for Real, and that is UP.
In the meantime, Atletico’s probability improved when it managed to get past the 10% figure, that corresponds to soccer odds of +900. Then odds dropped gradually down to +300 (25%) and remained there, until they almost crashed to +900 again, once when they were up against Barcelona in the quarter finals and once more when Alonso scored the first goal for Bayern in the second semifinal.
The most recent odds action reveals the bettors’ preference in favor of Real. Their odds seem to shorten just a bit, leading to the slight upward slope in the implied probability chart, whereas Atletico’s odds drift. Atletico’s chance to win Saturday’s game has declined from 50% to 45%, as the enthusiasm dries up.


Champions League Final Match Odds
Now, let’s take a look at the moneyline of the actual game, since we’ve analyzed the Champions League winner market, which has been up and running for months now.
Charts show that odds have returned to their opening values, after punters rushed in to back Real. When odds hit 2.50 (+150), the bettors’ sentiment shifted towards Atletico, as 3.50 (+250) maybe was considered too generous for a Champions League finalist. That, or maybe news on Ronaldo’s injury during training midweek did the trick. As the Portuguese superstar is set to be part of the starting squad, perhaps that newsflash never made it into the betting markets.

Who can predict the winner at this stage? Personally, my money is on Real. I foresee that their odds will resume shortening on Saturday, which leads me to believe that +160 offers some value according to the market efficiency theory. The worst I can see happening is their odds to remain stable at that price level. Betting on the highest odds never did any harm!
Here's a small reward-high risk strategy to consider: back Real to win the match AND back Atletico to win the Champions League. At current odds, we are losing money only in the event of Real winning the cup in extra time or penalty shootout.

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Free Soccer Pick: Real Madrid +150
Best Line Offered: at William Hill

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