Champions League Picks: Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid

Nila Amerova

Monday, April 28, 2014 8:02 PM GMT

Real Madrid descend on Bayern Munich in the second leg of their Champions League tie, holding only a slim edge over the defending champions. Can Real put the tie away from Bayern or will the hosts wrestle it back? Find out as we breakdown this matchup and deliver choice soccer picks.

Real Madrid can win
Real Madrid took the first leg 1-0 courtesy of Karim Benzema’s first-half strike but the game featured several missed opportunities by Cristiano Ronaldo and Angel di Maria that could have put the tie beyond Bayern Munich. It remains to be seen whether those misses would prove costly but for the time being, it’s theoretically their tie to lose with the advantage, slim though it might be.

Sportsbooks have gone to press with a predictable soccer-betting line on the second leg: Real Madrid are matched at severely disadvantaged odds of +375 to win outright. To qualify into the final however, the Spanish giants are listed as the favourites at -150 futures odds. Despite the hefty price tag for the second leg, the overarching market’s implication clearly is that Real Madrid can win this tie and advance into the final.

At first glance, the two soccer-betting markets might appear to be at cross-purposes. In reality it’s an indication of just how fine the margins really are at this level between arguably two of the best outfits in European football. What’s more, it’s an indication of just how tough Bayern Munich are to beat at the Allianz Arena and equally so, an individual salute to Pep Guardiola’s tactical brilliance that could rescue this tie for the German giants. 

Real Madrid strike an attractive pose at +375 soccer odds to win outright and soccer bettors may well fancy them at such a price. Carlo Ancelotti assembled an excellent game plan in the first leg, which his lads executed perfectly. Despite all the possession time Bayern enjoyed, they still lost 1-0. Could have lost 3-0 had Ronaldo and Maria not missed the mark.

If Los Blancos take a page from the first leg, the second leg could go their way again, which would make them a steal soccer pick at +375 to win outright. But, it’s worthwhile to note that Real Madrid really only need a draw to advance, which is matched at +333 soccer odds. The cautious Real optimist might therefore fancy the double chance market, which covers both possibilities with odds of +115 at Bet365.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":263781, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Bayern Munich should win
The burden of expectation dictates Bayern Munich should win this game and, in turn, the tie. They are after all the defending champions, and since the start of the competition, they were tipped as one of the favourites.

More importantly, they have the home advantage for the reverse leg where they are nigh unbeatable this season with a 14-1-1 mark. Their only defeat this season was to Borussia Dortmund on April 12, well after they’d won the Bundesliga title in record time.

Bayern Munich are matched at fancied -138 soccer odds to win the first leg. Unlike Real, their fate doesn’t rest on a couple of outcomes. They have no such luxury. Only a victory would ensure they advance into the final. So it’s interesting to note that they are tipped at -500 soccer odds to win or draw in double chance betting. And even more interesting that they are listed as the modest underdogs at +120 to advance into the final.

 

Soccer Betting Verdict
Whichever way you slice this matchup there is value to be had. Quite simply, either side could potentially advance.

Bayern’s appeal is undeniable. No team has won back-to-back Champions League titles, but if there were a team to do it, Bayern would be that team. Hands down. They are better than they were last season – something few imagined was possible. They have home advantage for the second leg. And, finally, they only have a goal deficit to overcome, which is completely and utterly doable and within their realm of quality, depth and talent. As such, they are a good soccer pick at -138 to win outright and an even more tempting soccer pick at +120 to advance into the final.

For our part, though, we quite fancy Real Madrid in this match up at +375 soccer odds. It’s been a long time that they’ve been knocking on the Champions League final door, only to fail to pass through. But Ancelotti’s instalment of Real Madrid is much better than any past instalment that has been trotted out onto this stage. And this time around, Los Blancos have the advantage on the scoreboard – slim though it might be – and the added advantage of needing only a draw to advance. Call it a hunch, a feeling or plain old sentimentality. But this could very well be the year Real Madrid finally delivers on their widely acknowledged potential.

Soccer Picks Free: Real Madrid to win outright at +375 or the double chance Real or Draw at +115