Champions League: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Barcelona: Odds, Prop Bets, Prediction & Soccer Picks

Kevin Stott

Friday, April 10, 2015 7:14 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 10, 2015 7:14 PM UTC

Barcelona has never won in three trips to Paris against PSG, Is taking a shot on home underdogs PSG worth a pick in this encounter in France? Find out inside.

Odds Overview
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Barcelona, Wednesday (April 15) 19:45 [20:45 CET, Local] (Fox Sports 1 USA, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox Soccer 2Go, Fox Sports GO, Fox Deportes (US); Sky Sports 1/HD, Sky Sports 5/HD, Sky Go, Sky Go Extra, NOW TV (UK); 2:45 p.m. ET/11:45 a.m. PT): The City of Lights, Paris, France and Parc de Princes is the site of the UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Leg 1 meeting between two current league leaders in Europe—Spanish La Liga top dogs Barcelona and France Ligue 1’s Paris Saint-Germain—in what is sure to be a competitive and tight affair with so much at stake. Oddsmakers have made visitors Barcelona -110 favorites (bet365) in the Three-Way (Winner) marketplace in this fixture with hosts Paris Saint-Germain priced as +300 underdogs and the Draw priced at +260 on the Champions League odds board and this is exactly the type of game where a Draw is a very distinct possibility. The Total Goals in this match has been set at 2½ with the Under and the Over both priced at -111 (bet365). The Both Teams To Score Prop odds in this opening leg sees the Yes at -120 and the No at +100 (BetVictor), odds hinting at how hard goals may be to come by in this mid-week affair.

Some various Props bets for this contest: Draw No Bet: Barcelona -250, PSG +125 (Sky Bet); To Qualify: Barcelona -300, PSG +229 (bet365); To Win To Nil: Barcelona +250, PSG +600 (Sky Bet); and, Total Goals Exact: 0 +1000, 1 +400, 2 +250, 3 +300, 4 +500, 5 +1000 and 6 +2000 (bet365).


FC Barcelona
Barcelona (23-2-4, 81 GF-17 GA in La Liga) and coach Luis Enrique seem to have La Blaugrana finally clicking as a Tiki-taka unit on the attack, but the team’s oh-so impressive Lionel Messi-Neymar-Luis Suárez triumvirate aren’t totally unstoppable, and my feel is that Barça probably wasn’t totally thrilled to draw Les Parisiens in this Quarterfinals round. This series should be really fun. One reality though, is that 4-time holders Barcelona (CL Form: WLWWWW) have a much better overall roster and are more confident at this point in Europe’s big soccer tournament than it’s had the last two years. And this club is now intent on winning a Treble (La Liga, UEFA Champions League and Copa del Rey titles)—Barça currently holds a 4-point lead on 2nd-place Real Madrid, (74-71 points) at this writing—and signing the aforementioned striker Suárez (8 goals), dynamic Croatian midfielder Ivan Rakitic (4 goals) and GK Claudio Bravo should help this team be able to make a run at the silverware here.

With the electric Messi (32 goals in La Liga), Neymar (17 goals), Suárez, Pedro (5 goals), Andrés Iniesta, Xavi, Rafinha, Rakitic and Gerard Piqué (4 goals), among others, the Spaniards have to like their chances this time around, but PSG should present quite the obstacle over these two legs. On the Injury front, Barcelona’s Jordi Alba (groin) is listed as Doubtful while teammate Thomas Vermaelen is listed as Injured and out for this match. And, like Quarterfinal opponents Paris Saint Germain (Chelsea), Barcelona (+258 to win Champions League, 888Sport) disposed of a presumed English Premier League heavyweight in Manchester City in the Round of 16. Hasta, Citizens of Sky Blue Mancunica. Better luck next time, a sympathy card and a fruit basket chock full o’ cantaloupe is on the way to City of Manchester Stadium, Ashton New Road, Manchester M11 3FF, United Kingdom. Better Luck next time Sergio, Yaya, David, Vincent and Joe.


Paris Saint-Germain FC
Paris Saint-Germain (17-11-3, 58 GF-30 GA in Ligue 1) and 49-year-old manager Laurent Blanc have slowly built (and bought through club President Nasser Al-Khelaifi—also the CEO of beIN Media Group—and owners Qatar Sports Investments) a pretty formidable team that can hang with the best of them and could very well win this tournament if everything goes right (+2100 to win UEFA Champions League, Betfair), they’re that good. If you want to bet this team to win this tourney, now is the Time to do so, brother. In the Round of 16, Les Rouge-et-Bleu (The Red and Blue) ousted Chelsea and manager José Mourinho, who wasn’t so special in the Blues two-game Round of 16 series against the Red and Blues.

Leading the way for this French side is striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic (17 goals)—one of the best and most impactful players in the world and often overlooked in a world of Messi and Neymar and Cristiano Ronaldo and others who get more of the soccer spotlight—Edinson Cavani (8 goals), Javier Pastore (3 goals, 7 assists), talented Argentinian Ezequiel Lavezzi (4 goals), Marco Verratti (5 assists), Jean-Christophe Bahebeck (3 goals), Adrien Rabiot (3 goals), Gregory van der Wiel, hearty David Luiz, Jean-Kévin Augustin and GK Salvatore Sirigu, among others. Players on Paris Saint-Germain—which presently (Wednesday, April 8) sits just 1 point ahead of 2nd-place Lyon (62-61 points) in Ligue 1 and is now ranked #11 in Europe by UEFA (Barcelona is #2)—who are listed as Injured (and presumed out) from information reported by the clubs to UEFA include GK Diaw Mory (unspecified), MF Lucas Moura (groin; 7 goals) and RB Serge Aurier (hamstring), while talented MF Yohan Cabaye (thigh) is listed as Doubtful for this Leg 1.


Best Betting Approaches and Series Trends
These two clubs have played 7 times, all in UEFA Champions League play with the series dead even at 2-3-2 and Barça holding the slightest edge in goals scored at 11-10. Two things to be aware of as a sports bettor here when making your soccer picks are PSG’s strength here at home at Parc de Princes, where it is still unbeaten at Home as we are in April (11-4-0 in Ligue 1, 34 GF-10 GA), and the fact that the Catalans have never won here yet (0-2-1, 5 GF-7 GA) in gay Paris versus PSG, something obviously not reflected by the soccer betting odds. Those betting odds and the numbers simply don’t care about his, as a good majority of the betting public will simply bet the better (offensive) team, Barcelona, and that legendary dude they’ve heard of, Leo Messi. And Messi can usually be the difference in close games, but the site here and the importance of the Leg 1 to the Hosts PSG, knowing it has to head to Camp Nou for a grueling and probably decisive Leg 2, still be on their best behavior here at Home next Wednesday. This should be a tentative, very slow-developing, tightly played Leg 1 for about 35-55 minutes, before one team realizes it needs to tie things up as it doesn’t want to head to that second leg in a bad way. So some star like Messi or Suárez or Ibrahimovic or Lavezzi or maybe Cavani gets the equalizer. This one seems like it will be a low-scoring, potentially even surprisingly boring at times affair with neither team wanting to make that early mistake in Leg 1 at this critical point in the UEFA Champions League, with PSG doing everything in its power to stifle the Barcelona Three-Headed Monster while also trying to head to the Spain for that Leg 2 (Tuesday, April 21) with hopefully at least a goal lead or even at worst. And that should prove to be challenging. Again, this seems like a game that totally fits that Draw mold.


Predicted Final Score: Paris Saint-Germain 1 Barcelona 1

Free UCL Pick: Under 2½ -111 at bet365, PSG Draw No Bet +125 (Sky Bet)

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