Champions League Futures Soccer Odds: Top Picks to Advance into Quarterfinals

Nikki Adams

Friday, March 6, 2015 3:44 PM GMT

Friday, Mar. 6, 2015 3:44 PM GMT

We weigh in on the Champions League betting market, reviewing pre-R16 Champions League Odds to advance into the quarterfinals as well as the competition's futures odds to win outright. 

Pre-R16 Champions League Market Outlook
Going into the R16, the top European clubs headlined the Champions League odds board as decreed by their undeniable quality, depth and skill. Few surprises were to be had (see Table 1), really.

As you can see Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona, perennial favourites this side of the decade, had a stranglehold on the market, albeit the latter was slightly adrift largely down to drawing Man City in the R16, one of the top five faves in sports betting markets (Column: Odds Before R16) and a side that apparently could give them a run for their money. Of course, that was the notion before the R16 got off the mark.

Having avoided some of Europe's terrifying heavyweights Arsenal and Atletico Madrid were midway in the mix, mingling amongst the so-called contenders. The rest of the field lined-up according to perception (their true measure against the field) and, more specifically, to the draw and their imminent opponent: against which teams they were matched up in the knockout stages.

Table 1: Champions League Future Odds To Win Outright


* Odds courtesy of Bet365

Now that the first leg is firmly in the books, overarching future Soccer odds have moved conspicuously, some of which is represented by the arrows in Table 1. The moves are a direct reaction to the results of the first leg, the shifting balance of the matchups. For instance, Arsenal slid down the pecking order from sixth overall favourite (at +2000 to win the competition outright) to 13th overall (at whopping +8000 soccer odds). Another strong favourite to experience a decline is Man City, after succumbing to a hefty defeat to Barcelona at the Etihad. Falling out of top five favour (one wonders whether they should have been included in that group to begin with, really), from +1400 to +5000 soccer odds.

Needless to say, similar moves have occurred in the odds to advance into the quarterfinals, some of which are indicated in Table 2. It's the order of things. Bookies redress the odds to reflect the advantages or disadvantage of each team going into the second leg and the degree of difficulty to win the tie from that point on.

 

Table 2. Champions League R16 Odds To Advance Into the Quarterfinals


* Odds courtesy of Bet365

Let's look at each individual matchup closely and how it pertains to the future odds to advance into the quarterfinals.

 

FC Porto vs. Basel
Tie Score:
1:1 draw
Analysis: Competition long shots FC Porto and Basel are tied 1-1 after the first leg, an inconclusive note to the beginning of their campaign in the knockouts that has resulted in a tie that is essentially up for grabs. Alas, the soccer betting outlook isn't appropriately competitive. On account of home advantage and an away goal, FC Porto emerge as the decided -450 favourites to advance into the second leg. Basel, though, are still very much in it and an attractive soccer pick at +320 to advance into the knockouts. In fact, we'd go so far as to say their long soccer odds are unwarranted and if they score an away goal in Lisbon the hosts' edge would be wiped out.

Soccer Pick: Basel +320 to advance

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Real Madrid vs. Schalke
Tie Score:
Real leads 2-0 after first leg
Analysis: After a convincing 2-0 start to their campaign in the knockouts, defending champions Real Madrid emerge as the absurd -50000 faves to advance into the knockouts. These overinflated odds are all about perception rather than anything else. Granted two away goals is an immense advantage in a competition such as this one and Real have the decided edge over Schalke with the return leg at home. But there have been occasions where such clear advantages were reversed. For instance, the 2012-2013 Champions League R16 saw Barcelona fall 2-0 to Milan before reversing the tie with a 4-0 win at Camp Nou. Of course, Schalke isn't cut from the same cloth as Barcelona is, but Real Madrid can't take anything for granted. Keep in mind, Di Matteo is coaching the Bundesliga hopefuls and he did lead Chelsea all the way to the title a few years back. More likely than not, Real Madrid will advance but don't expect it to be as straightforward as the odds makers would suggest. This tie could serve up some drama yet.

Soccer Picks: Real Madrid to advance

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Bayern Munich vs. Shakhtar Donetsk:
Tie Score:
0:0 draw after first leg
Analysis: Of all the first legs, this was the most disappointing of all in terms of a favourite exerting its might over a lesser side. Not only did Bayern Munich fail to defeat Shakhtar Donetsk but they also failed to secure a pivotal away goal. One wonders whether that might come back to haunt them in the second leg when they host Shakhtar Donetsk at Allianz Arena. Granted, this is only one of the best teams in Europe in today's game. Former champions and a force to be reckoned with on home turf. Based on the result of the tie alone, however, you have to agree the soccer betting outlook is disproportionate. Bayern Munich are overinflated as the -1000 faves to advance into the knockouts while the Ukrainian hopefuls are disingenuously matched at +600 to advance into the knockouts. Worst case scenario: if the tie were to settle on a 1:1 draw (2:2 or higher), the Ukrainians would advance by virtue of away goals.

Soccer Picks: Bayern Munich to advance

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Chelsea vs. PSG
Tie Score:
1:1 draw after first leg
Analysis: Essentially, this is another tie up for grabs with the score settled on a 1:1 draw after a fast-paced first leg in Paris. Needless to say, Chelsea have a distinct edge with the away goal and the second leg at Stamford Bridge. The Blues are also enjoying fine form, bolstered by a win in Capital One Cup at the weekend. Still, this pair met last season. PSG won the first leg 3-1 while Chelsea won the second leg 2-0 to push the tie to a 3-3 draw only for Chelsea to advance by virtue of away goals.  The odds to advance into the quarters are appropriately set with Chelsea matched at -250 and PSG matched at +200, a soccer betting line that offers angles for profit on both sides of the coin. PSG are still very much in it and if they can score a couple of goals at Stamford Bridge, this tie could turn on its head.

Soccer Picks: PSG +250 to advance

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Atletico Madrid vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Tie Score:
Bayer have 1-0 edge
Analysis: Although the German side have the 1-0 edge over Atletico Madrid, few are buying what they are selling. It's one thing to win at home, another to win on the road. Hence, the odds makers have rolled out a coy soccer betting line with both sides set to -110 soccer odds to advance into the knockouts. Notionally, there's everything to play for in this tie, but Atleti are the popular soccer pick for good reason.

Soccer Free Picks: Atleti to advance -110

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Check out our Soccer Picks for Top Scorer in Champions League.

Monaco vs. Arsenal
Tie Score:
Monaco have 3-1 edge
Analysis: Colour the world shocked. Monaco stuns Arsenal 3-1 at the Emirates, not only handing the Gunners one of their worst defeats in a home leg but also gaining a nigh insurmountable edge. The Gunners certainly have their work cut out for them if they are to reverse this tie. By the soccer odds, at +600 to advance, the chances they would do so are slim to none. Needless to say, it's happened before in Champions League, but Arsene Wenger's collection of underachieving, world class  soccer baubles aren't being trusted to reverse a three-away goal deficit. Not after having a significant edge on the soccer odds board ahead of the first leg, only to allow Monaco to runaway with the tie. Certainly, Monaco are in the driver's seat at -1000 to advance into the quarterfinals.

Soccer Free Picks: Monaco to advance

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Barcelona vs. Man City
Tie Score:
Barcelona have 2-1 edge
Analysis: Barcelona have the decided 2-1 edge over Man City to advance into the quarterfinals, but they didn't exactly put it to bed at the Etihad. Two goals up and home advantage for the return leg is definitely a good position to be in, make no mistake. However, Man City aren't out of it entirely. Man City were down to ten men yet managed to keep the game close, thanks to Sergio Aguero's timely goal. If they can keep it together at Camp Nou, they have a shot at the upset. Realistically, it's a slim shot as evinced by the +1000 soccer odds to advance – beating Barcelona at Camp Nou is easier said than done – but, fortune favours the brave, so they say.

Soccer Picks: Man City to advance +1000

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Borussia Dortmund vs. Juventus
Tie Score:
Juventus lead 2-1
Analysis: Juventus took the 2-1 edge in the first leg of their tie with Borussia Dortmund in Turin, prompting the slight edge on the soccer odds board. Juventus have the market cornered as the -175 faves to advance while Borussia Dortmund are matched at +138 to advance. To be fair, the win in Turin nudges the Italian side ahead in the tie. However, it's not enough to qualify them as the clear-cut favourites to advance in our opinion. On the contrary, Borussia Dortmund have home advantage in the return leg as well as the away goal to bank on. There's also the fallibility of the Italian side on the road to consider. Juventus may be a tough nut to crack in Turin. On the road, it's another matter entirely. In group action, they failed to beat a quality side in Europe. Borussia Dortmund can certainly turn this tie on its head, proving to be the value soccer pick.

Soccer Picks: Borussia Dortmund +138

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