Champions League Betting Markets Show Winner Will Come From Madrid

Jim Makos

Monday, May 2, 2016 1:30 PM UTC

Monday, May. 2, 2016 1:30 PM UTC

Right before we know the Champions League finalists, we uncover the soccer betting market’s preference for the likely winner. Will it be from Madrid..?

One game is left to decide which teams are going to Champions League final. Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid are theoretically ahead, as the former scored a home win and the latter an away goalless draw in the first leg of the semi-finals. That’s also reflected in sportsbooks’ betting odds. The two Spanish teams are the favorites to win the title, with the Bayern Munich coming a close third. Manchester City is the underdog as odds are trading at +700.

What do the coming to a close, 8-month soccer odds action and betting trends tell for the Champions League winner?


Real Madrid vs. Manchester City
It’s difficult not to go with the favorite here, just by the looks of the chart below. Real is a better than 30% favorite for the Cup, while Manchester City’s chance is half of that. What’s more important here though, is the strong uptrend in Real’s chart and the spike down in City’s chart.

That corresponds to Real’s odds strongly trending downwards and City’s drifting for a moment there.

Real Madrid Betting Odds to win Champions League

As both charts show an uptrend, readers may have doubts how we can pick one from another. In other words, given betting odds are declining for both Real and City, why pick Real over Manchester City?

Well, this is not the stock market where stocks of a sector are going up all together. We know for a fact that one of the team won’t advance to the Champions League final and only one team will be crowned the league’s winner. Thus, we search for reversal clues.

City’s probability line is not printing higher highs lately and momentarily printed a lower low as well. The ascend seems to have slowed down, whereas Real’s line is definitely climbing faster, with no lower lows being printed since the all-time low at 10%.

Manchester City Betting Odds to win Champions League

Finally, spikes are sometimes an indication of where the price might go. It’s as if the market shows us where it’s heading. While that of course isn’t always the case, we cannot ignore the spike to 35% for Real and the spike down to 8% for City.


Atletico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich
The same principles of chart analysis apply at the other Champions League game, as well. Atletico’s probability line is shooting up with minimal retraces, having covered a lot more ground than Bayern’s, which collapsed first before climbing. Now, it has pulled back to 25% all the way from 40%. While that level (25%) offers great support, failure to overcome 40% right before the pullback could be a sign of the uptrend’s exhaustion.


Champions League Winner
So, I have high hopes for Madrid’s teams to make it to the Champions League final. But who will win it?

That’s a tricky question given the odds action. I honestly cannot pick one over the other, but by betting on both of them right now at odds longer than +200, we will make money should both teams advance. In case one fails, our money will still be on the final’s favorite, which I’d pick again to win the title, no matter its rival team.

Atletico Madrid Betting Odds to win Champions League

Let me explain that.

If Bayern knocks Atletico out, its probability will likely climb to 40%, which means Real’s will skyrocket to 60%. Even if there’s an even chance for both teams to win the Final game, Real’s uptrend will still look a lot stronger than Bayern’s. Now, say City knocks out Real. Atletico will certainly be a big favorite in that case and will have the momentum, as I cannot see how City’s chance could climb higher than 20%. Hence, Atletico and Real are my current Champions League soccer picks.

Finally, in case both Spanish teams lose next week…  

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