Champions League Betting: Market Update Ahead Of The Second Leg

Nikki Adams

Monday, May 2, 2016 9:32 PM GMT

We look ahead to the second leg of the Champions League semi-finals and spot the moves in outright betting markets. How does the field stack up for your soccer picks.

Reviewing Champions League outlook ahead of the First Leg
Going into the Champions League semi-finals, sportsbooks released outright betting odds for the remaining four teams. Bundesliga giants Bayern Munich emerged as the team to beat while ten-time champions Real Madrid closely nipped at their heels. (See Table 1).

We review those odds here before looking ahead to the landscape and spotting the changes (if any) in soccer betting outlook.

 

Table 1: Champions League Betting Odds on April 21, ahead of First Leg

Team

Bet365

Bovada

BetOnline

William Hill

Bayern Munich

+150

+150

+150

+150

Real Madrid

+187

+185

+200

+220

Atletico Madrid

+350

+350

+300

+350

Manchester City

+750

+750

+600

+600

Over and above betting on tournament winner, soccer bettors could also place bets on the potential final matchup (See Table 2). According to the odds below, the wide expectations across sports betting markets was for a top-billing showdown between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich at +100 soccer odds.

 

Table 2: Name the Finalist Betting Odds on April 21, Ahead of First Leg

Name the Finalist

Odds

Real Madrid-Bayern Munich

+100

Real Madrid-Atletico Madrid

+250

Bayern Munich-Man City

+350

Atletico Madrid-Man City

+650

Public betting trends also fell in line with this outlook: 61.61% of the market was staked on it materialising. What was interesting, though, the second most-bet outcome was the least likely scenario according to the odds: Man City vs. Atletico Madrid. That long shot scenario, priced at +650 soccer odds had garnered 19.27% of the bets ahead of the first leg.

Granted it represents a third of the bets going towards the market’s favoured final, but it’s still intriguing to learn that it was the second most bet scenario, bet more than the second favoured final between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid at +250, which would be a reprisal of the 2013-2014 final that marked Real’s La Decima. In fact, that repeat final was the least bet at 8.03%. (See Chart 1).

Chart 1: Consensus Betting Chart

How has the outlook changed following the first leg? Well, quite significantly. Real Madrid now emerge as the top favourites to win it all while Bayern Munich slip to second overall favourites and, even, level with Atletico Madrid. (See Table 3).

Table 3: Champions League Betting Odds on April 30, Ahead of Second Leg

Team

Bet365

Bovada

BetOnline

William Hill

Real Madrid

+187

+185

+175

+175

Atletico Madrid

+225

+225

+225

+225

Bayern Munich

+225

+225

+225

+225

Manchester City

+600

+700

+650

+650


 

Obviously, the outcome of the first leg has made this impact on the Champions League outrights. Real Madrid held Man City to a scoreless away draw, setting up a highly anticipated return leg at the Bernabeu in the Spanish capital on Wednesday. Bayern Munich, meanwhile, lost to Atletico Madrid 1-0 at the Calderon. However, with a return leg at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday, they are still very much in it and a one-goal deficit is hardly catastrophic or an insurmountable obstacle for a club of their ilk. Then again, Atletico Madrid’s outright odds have shortened in direct proportion to their edge in the tie. After all, as it stands, they are one foot into the final.

The only side that remains unmoved in the field is Man City. While a scoreless draw to Real Madrid is considered a commendable result and gives Manuel Pellegrini’s side a shot at the final, it’s notional at best in the eyes of the market. A Hail Mary of a shot at the Bernabeu against the most successful club in the competition’s history.

To be fair, that hasn’t deterred bettors at all. In fact, consensus betting polls in outright betting markets reveal quite the opposite.

Chart 2: Consensus Betting Polls in Outrights on April 30, Ahead of Second Leg

Chart 2 reveals a couple of very interesting things. At face value, public betting is split almost evenly between all four clubs, which is understandable given how delicately and precariously both ties sit ahead of the second leg. The most interesting aspect, though, must be that Real Madrid, current favourites in the market, are garnering the least amount of bets (albeit fractionally so) and, Bayern Munich, meanwhile, remains the most-bet club despite trailing in their tie to dangerous floaters Atletico Madrid. Actually, Diego Simeone’s side as well as Manuel Pellegrini’s Citizens have slightly more bets than Real Madrid.

All in all, this is shaping up to be a thrilling round of Champions League betting with everything to be decided in the next few days. Theoretically, all four clubs have a reasonable shot to advance into the final, making either one a good bet to consider. Although the value of experience can never be underplayed. Which way are you slicing your soccer picks?