Champions League Betting: Chelsea vs. PSG

Nila Amerova

Monday, April 7, 2014 6:18 PM GMT

Can Chelsea comeback from a 3-1 deficit to PSG in order to turn their Champions League quarterfinal tie on its head in the 2nd leg? Find out what odds have gone to press and where the value is to be had.

Chelsea down but not out
Jose Mourinho is tasked with an impossible task, to overturn a 3-1 deficit against free-scoring Paris St. Germain (PSG) at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night in UEFA Champions League quarterfinal action. The dapper Portuguese manager has never accomplished the feat on previous similar occasions – he’s never come back from two or more goals down with any of his teams. Having never done so however doesn’t mean he’ll never do it. On the contrary, there’s always a first for everything. So the question uppermost in soccer betting circles: will he accomplish the task this time around?

This is where soccer-betting markets get very interesting. Chelsea are matched at fancied -120 soccer odds to win outright at Stamford Bridge, a vote of confidence across sportsbook platforms that has everything to do with their solid record at home this season as well as under the Special One. The Blues are 15-2-0 at home in Premier League to date as well they are undefeated at the Bridge during both Mourinho’s separate reigns over the club.

That Chelsea are fancied to win the second leg doesn’t mean they are fancied to advance into the semis, so mutually inclusive the pair of outcomes are. It’s quite possible that the Blues would win the second leg but would fail to advance on aggregate. Indeed, sportsbooks list Chelsea at large +275 futures betting odds to advance at the expense of the highly favoured PSG at -400 to advance.

The first leg was a bit of a disaster for Chelsea as they fell behind almost at the off on the back of Lavezzi ‘s 4th minute goal. Eden Hazard proved to be Chelsea’s man of the match as he scored the first half equaliser on a penalty shot. But the wheels came undone early in the second half when David Luiz scored an own goal for the hosts and then Pastore added a third in extra time.

Share your top picks and plays on the Soccer Betting Forum

PSG in pole position
PSG are in pole position, all but through to the semis on the merit of a 3-1 edge in the first leg. But they are listed at rather large +375 soccer odds to back that result up with another victory at Stamford Bridge despite being the favourites to go through, which only underscores the hosts credentials and quality.

Laurent Blanc and his band of lethal scorers can’t take anything for granted when they descend on Chelsea, especially when they’ll be without their prize striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic in London, who suffered an injury in the first leg. Of course, Blanc is embarrassed for choice up front with Edinson Cavani, Lucas, Pastore, Lavezzi and so on...and if they step up to the task at hand, the Magnificent Ibra might not even be missed.  Edinson Cavani is tipped at +240 to score anytime while Lavezzi comes in at +300. Pastore meanwhile is matched at +500 to score anytime at Bet365.

PSG arrive in London riding a 15-game unbeaten streak across all competitions, which includes 11 straight wins and 8 clean sheets. Even though PSG can take a lot of confidence from this run of form and momentum into this clash, they haven’t come up against a side quite like Chelsea at Stamford Bridge during this stretch. Although perceptibly absent in Paris, Chelsea boasts one of the best defences in Premier League and nowhere is it more apparent than at home where they are undefeated on the season and boast eight clean sheets in a row ahead of this highly-anticipated clash.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":262406, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Soccer Betting Verdict: This Champions League decider has the potential to go either way given the quality of both teams and their respective form. However, advancement would appear to be a foregone conclusion with PSG heavily favoured to do so at -400 futures betting odds at Bet365.

History and trends stand against Chelsea. It would take a heroic effort by Chelsea to reverse this tie and advance at the expense of PSG, not to mention a sudden spark up front, which hasn’t been a constant this season and which in turn has been a source of Mourinho’s constant whinging: the desperate need for a truly lethal striker. Yet Chelsea have the edge on defence and that could prove deciding for the second leg, which then would make them a good soccer pick at -120 to win outright.

That said PSG are one foot into the semis, two goals up on Chelsea and three matches away from the final. Those are heady thoughts indeed that stand in stark contrast to their disingenuous soccer odds of +375 to win outright. So if you’re looking for value in this match, the best soccer pick could very well be the most unthinkable one: PSG to beat Chelsea in their kop!

Soccer Free Picks—PSG to win outright at +375; Cavani to score anytime at +240