Where The Value Lies When When Betting UFC 201

Robbie Lawler

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, July 27, 2016 3:47 PM GMT

UFC 201 will feature welterweight king Robbie Lawler defending his crown against fourth-ranked Tyron Woodley. Let's examine the UFC odds in the main event matches slated for July 30th.

Namajunas (5-2, 0 KO's, 4 Subs) vs. Kowalkiewicz (9-0, 1 KO, 2 Subs)
In the interest of full disclosure, I'm not a fan of the women's Strawweight division because at 115 pounds there's little damage done and the action is normally more than a bit tedious. I could also do without the men's flyweight division - with the notable exception of Demetrious Johnson - but that's a topic for another day.

I have seen both women fight and am convinced this will go to the judge's scorecards as Namajunas will not subdue the game Kowalkiewicz as the 30-year-old native of Poland has a decent takedown defense and a stinging brand of Muay Thai that will keep Namajunas from getting in close. I say this will turn into a fencing match with the woman scoring the most points winning the day.

Free UFC Pick: Kowalkiewicz (no line available yet).

 

Matt Brown (20-14, 12 KO's, 6 Subs) vs. Jake Ellenberger (30-11, 18 KO's, 6 Subs)
Don't blink during this one because it could be over before you know it. Both UFC veterans understand their tenure in the UFC is on the line in this one. Matt Brown, a 35-year-old veteran of the cage wars, has lost three of his last four while Jake Ellenberger has dropped five of his last six. Dana White has given both of these fighters a much-deserved reprieve from the unemployment line because they have both fought the toughest guys in the division, one after another.

That being said, Matt Brown is the most skilled of the two and will use not only his knockout power but also his highly underrated ground game if the need should arise. Ellenberger is one tough hombre to be sure but Matt Brown owns a three-inch height and four-inch reach advantage that will nullify Ellenberger's attack.

Free UFC Pick: Matt Brown (no line available yet)

 

Woodley (15-3, 5 KO’s, 1 Sub) vs. Lawler (27-10, 20 KO’s, 1 Sub)
Tyron Woodley is renowned for his devastating punching power but the funny thing is, he has but five KO's in 15 MMA victories. However, the Woodley fans will have you know that four of those five knockouts have occurred in the premier organization of mixed martial arts, aka the UFC, and all have come over the course of his last two years inside the Octagon.

But if look at those knockouts more closely we find Woodley starched a clearly faded Jay Hieron and put the veteran MMA journeyman out to pasture for good. After a split decision loss to Jake Shields, he dusted a Josh Koscheck who was a shadow of his former self in November of '13. Woodley's next opponent, Carlos Condit, suffered a twisted knee and had to basically retire which was counted as a TKO in their March of '14 contest. Woodley lost a unanimous decision to top contender Rory MacDonald in his next bout but then scored the most impressive finish of his career, when he sent Dong Hyun Kim to sleep in the opening round of their clash in August of 2014.

So what we have is really one impressive KO in Woodley's career despite him being hailed as this annihilator of men. Does he hit hard? You bet. But is his power overrated? You bet again. There's a reason the UFC odds makers are installing the champion as north of a -200 favorite and that's because Robbie Lawler is a more tenacious fighter with even more power than Woodley. Don't be lulled into thinking there is value in the challenger here. Woodley hasn't fought in over 18 months and ring rust will also be working against him. Make sure you include Ruthless Robbie Lawler in your UFC picks on Saturday, July 30th.

Free UFC Pick: Robbie Lawler -200
Best Line Offered: at YouWager

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