The road team still has a significant betting edge through the first eight weeks of the 2016 CFL regular season at 23-9 against the spread. Looking at two of this week’s matchups, it could be a good time to buck both of these trends.
I cashed in on last week’s two-team CFL parlay with the right call on Edmonton covering against Montreal at home and the OVER in the Winnipeg at Toronto game. I am leaning the exact same way this week with an OVER and a home favorite as this week’s top two picks based on betting lines from BetOnline.
Calgary Stampeders vs British Columbia Lions
Total Line: 56.5
These two West Division rivals will be meeting for the third time this season. Each has won and covered ATS on their home field with the total split 1-1. Calgary has established itself as the early Grey Cup frontrunner with a 5-1-1 SU start while going 5-2 ATS. It brings a SU four-game winning streak into this Friday’s game behind an offense that is averaging 30.1 points a game. A big reason for this success has been the play of quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. He is second in the CFL in passing yards (2,194) and first in passing touchdowns.
The Lions have been lighting up the scoreboard as well in their SU 5-2 start while also lining bettor’s pockets with a 6-1 record ATS. Jonathon Jennings is third in the league in total passing yards (2,048) and he has tossed 11 touchdowns. BC is averaging 32.3 points a game, which is tops in the CFL and the total has now gone OVER in its last four games while taking this average up to 41 points in that 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) stretch.
The Stampeders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and the total has gone OVER in four of their last six games overall.
The Lions are 2-1 both SU and ATS in three home games this season and the total has stayed UNDER in two of those three games.
Head-to-head in this West Division tilt, Calgary is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games against the Lions and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the Stampeders last four trips to BC.
The total line has been set pretty high for this matchup, but I still do think it has not been set high enough for two teams that combined for 85 points the last time they met. Look for the points to quickly add up again this time around to take this game OVER as well.
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Total Line: 53
Even with Darian Durant back under center for the Roughriders at quarterback, this offense continues to have a major issue scoring points. It has combined to score just 28 points in its current three-game losing streak (SU and ATS) and on the year Saskatchewan is averaging just 19.7 points while allowing 33.3 points a game on the other side of the ball. It all adds up to a 1-6 SU start with a 2-5 record ATS. In last week’s loss to Calgary, Durant went 24-for-37 for 267 yards and added 74 yards on the ground, but his effort only produced 10 points on the scoreboard.
The Tiger-Cats are 3-4 (SU and ATS) in their first seven games in what has been and up and down ride from one week to the next. The silver lining to it all is the return of quarterback Zach Collaros to the starting lineup after recovering from knee surgery. In last week’s wild 45-38 loss to BC in his first game back, he threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns while completing 24-of-40 passing attempts. A bit more of the rust should wear off this week as he gets back into the groove of being one of the top passing quarterbacks in the CFL.
The Roughriders are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games on the road and the total has gone OVER in three of their last five road games.
The Tiger-Cats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six games overall.
Saskatchewan has a 8-4 SU edge in its last 12 road games against the Tiger-Cats and the total has stayed UNDER in four of its last road games against Hamilton.
The prospect for any kind of quick turn around for Saskatchewan looks pretty bleak, but with Collaros back in action for Hamilton, it could be time to get back on the Tiger-Cats’ bandwagon with a win this week both SU and ATS.