Saskatchewan Roughriders at British Columbia Lions
Free Pick: BC +3.5 over Saskatchewan
Recommended Sportsbook: 5Dimes
The UNDER bet on 51 points was my top CFL pick last week and both teams lit things up in Saskatchewan’s 38-25 victory as a six-point home favorite. The two-game series now shifts to BC for Saturday night’s rematch at 7 p.m. It is hard to beat the same team twice in two weeks, especially in a bitter West Division rivalry.
Expectations were high for BC coming into this season after squeezing into the playoffs last year as a crossover team with an even straight-up record of 9-9. Things have not gone as planned in a 1-5 start both SU and against the closing spread. Last week’s loss was actually a step in the right direction for the offense after scoring a combined 24 points its previous two outings. The Lions have played four of their first six games on the road, so playing this one at home is a definite plus.
Adding Mike Reilly at quarterback this offseason is why optimism was so high for this team. He has battled through a slow start to rank second in the CFL in total passing yards. In last Saturday’s road loss, he completed 77.5 percent of his 40 passing attempts for 346 yards and one touchdown throw. This is one of the main reasons I am looking for a much better effort from BC’s offense as a whole in front of the hometown crowd.
Saskatchewan improved to 2-3 SU with a 3-2 record ATS with last week’s win. The other win came against 0-5 Toronto at home. The Roughriders have lost both their previous road games this season SU along with a 37-10 loss at home to Calgary as five-point favorites. They have failed to cover in four of their last six road games dating back to last season.
Cody Fajardo has provided a spark at quarterback for the injured Zach Collaros. He completed 17-of-23 passes against the Lions for 278 yards and two scores. He was also picked off twice. He did add another 53 yards rushing and a score on eight carries in that game. The inconsistency of play on this side of the ball is still an issue with a couple of rough outings on the early resume as well.
Head-to-Head Betting Trends
–The Lions have won four of their last five home games against Saskatchewan both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in 17 of the last 24 meetings overall and it has also stayed UNDER in 14 of the last 18 meetings at BC Place Stadium.
Free Betting Pick
I dropped to even on my top CFL picks on the year with last week’s miscalculation on the amount of scoring in this matchup. Heading into the backend of this West Division home-and-home, I remain confident that BC evens the score both SU and ATS.
CFL ‘Best Bet’ Record: 3-3
Other CFL Week 7 Games:
Thursday, July 25
Calgary (-5) at Ottawa Total Line: 51.5 (7 p.m.)
I was stunned by Ottawa’s extremely weak showing against Winnipeg last week with just one point on the board. Where there is smoke there is fire, so take Calgary SU and ATS.
Toronto at Edmonton (-10.5) Total Line: 53 (9:30 p.m.)
Toronto is as bad as advertised. However, Edmonton’s Week 6 loss to Montreal has to raise the level of concern betting on the Eskimos covering such a large spread.
Friday, July 26
Winnipeg at Hamilton PICK Total Line: 55 (7 p.m.)
This is easily the game of the week in the CFL between the league’s top two teams. My lean is towards Hamilton ending Winnipeg’s five-game winning streak. Yet, I am betting the OVER in this one.