Argonauts vs. Alouettes Prediction, Odds & CFL Best Bets: July 17

Can the struggling Toronto Argonauts cover the spread as underdogs? We explore the possibilities while adding a tasty player prop.

Matt Jacob

Last Updated: July 17, 2025 7:00 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Argonauts vs. Alouettes Prediction, Odds & CFL Best Bet: July 17 — Pictured: Toronto Argonauts quarterback Nick Arbuckle, featured in our Argonauts vs. Alouettes Prediction, Odds & CFL Best Bet, throws a pass. Photo by Eric Bolte via Imagn Images

In a rematch of a Week 1 clash, the Toronto Argonauts head to Percival Molson Memorial Stadium in Montreal to battle the Grey Cup odds favorite Montreal Alouettes tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET (TSN/RDS, CBSSN).

Although Montreal is again a decisive 10.5-point home betting favorite at our best sports betting sites, our Argonauts vs. Alouettes prediction calls for the defending Grey Cup champs to keep it close in hostile territory.

🔮 Argonauts vs. Alouettes expert picks & predictions

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✅ Moneyline pick: Alouettes (-400 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Argonauts +9.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 50.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Argonauts vs. Alouettes?

✅ Moneyline pick: Alouettes will win (-400 via bet365)

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Montreal opened the 2025 CFL season with a 28-10 rout of the Argonauts, easily covering as a 5.5-point home favorite back on June 6.

In the victory, quarterback Davis Alexander and running back Sean Thomas Erlington combined for 146 of the Alouettes’ 163 rushing yards. Expect both to again run all over a Toronto stop unit that ranks dead last in the CFL in rushing defense (124.8 yards per game).

Conversely, Montreal is yielding a league-low 76 rushing yards per contest. In what figures to be another low-scoring battle, we like the Alouettes to prevail again - but this time by a much narrower 24-20 margin.

💰 Argonauts vs. Alouettes prediction & CFL best bet

Argonauts vs. Alouettes Prediction, Odds & CFL Best Bet — Pictured: Toronto Argonauts running back Deonta McMahon runs against the Montreal Alouettes as we provide our Argonauts vs. Alouettes Prediction. Photo by Eric Bolte via Imagn Images

🛳️ Argonauts +9.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -115 via BetMGM ($10 pays $8.70)

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Toronto has been a money-burner so far this season, with just one victory while covering the spread once through its first five games - a 29-16 upset of Ottawa as a 1.5-point road underdog in Week 4.

However, the Argonauts’ offense has sprung to life in the last three weeks, averaging 33 points after scoring a grand total of 29 points in their first two contests.

On the flip side, Montreal’s defense has sprung a leak. Since holding Toronto and Ottawa to 10 and 18 points in the opening two weeks, the Alouettes have given up an average of 28 points in their last three outings. That includes consecutive losses to Hamilton (37-17 in Week 4) and BC (21-20 in Week 5), both as a 2.5-point favorite.

Yes, Montreal is the superior squad, especially in the trenches. But it’s been six years since the Alouettes beat the Argos twice in the same season, and 14 years since they’ve defeated them by more than a touchdown twice in the same season.

Throw in the fact that Toronto has the CFL’s third-leading passer in Nick Arbuckle (1,449 yards), and the backdoor should be open if the Argonauts need a spread-covering score in garbage time.

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👀 Star player prop to watch

🏈 Nick Arbuckle Over 282.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -114 via FanDuel ($10 pays $8.77)

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Arbuckle has thrown for at least 259 yards in all five of Toronto’s games this season, including a 273-yard effort at Montreal in Week 1.

And while the Alouettes field the CFL’s stingiest run defense - giving up six fewer rush yards per game than any other team - they’re surrendering nearly 260 air yards per contest.

The most recent quarterback to face Montreal? BC’s Nathan Rourke, who racked up 352 yards on just 22 completions in the Lions’ 21-20 upset win in Week 5.

🏈 Argonauts vs. Alouettes odds

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Written by:
Matt Jacob

Matt Jacob is a freelance writer and editor with more than three decades of professional experience working for an array of print and digital employers and clients. He first dove into the sports betting space in 2005 as a full-time handicapper and content producer. In addition to picking games 363 days a year, Matt wrote daily betting previews for all major professional and college sports, with those previews published (unbylined) on Yahoo’s website. He has since produced sports betting-related articles and picks pieces for outlets such as Forbes and the Philadelphia Inquirer. While Matt also has vast TV, radio and webcast experience, he is perhaps the only individual in the sports betting ecosystem without a podcast (for now, anyway). Instead, Matt’s opinions and borderline unhealthy fascination with betting trends can be found on Twitter @MattRJacob. As for actual wagering, Matt believes strongly in a longstanding principle: Only bet what you can afford to lose. Because in an industry where even the best of the best succeed less than 60% of the time, you’re going to lose … a lot. And the graduate of San Diego State University - aka “The Harvard of the West” - has shoeboxes full of losing tickets to prove it.