CFL 2-Team Parlay for Week 11: Stampeders Giving Too Many Points?

David Schwab

Thursday, August 31, 2017 2:12 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 31, 2017 2:12 PM UTC

The second half of the CFL regular season gets underway this Thursday and it extends all the way through Labor Day with four intriguing division matchups on the slate. I have zeroed-in on the two showdowns in the West Division, which should have a lasting impact on the face of that title race given the outcome of both games.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-2.5, 61)

The Blue Bombers extended their current straight-up winning streak to five games with last week’s 34-31 victory over Montreal on the road in a game that closed as a pick'em. They have covered against the spread in their last four contests and the total has gone OVER in seven of their first nine games this season. Winnipeg has scored at least 33 points in each of its last seven to help aid a defense that is allowing an average of 30.9 points per game.

Saskatchewan threw its name into the hat as a contender in the West with last Friday’s wild 54-31 victory against Edmonton as a 5.5-point road underdog. The Roughriders improved to 4-4 SU on the year with a 5-3 record ATS. The total easily went OVER 54 points in that win after staying UNDER in three of their previous four games. Saskatchewan got a big effort from its defense last week with two interceptions returned for scores.

  • The Blue Bombers have gone 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games and the total has gone OVER in eight of their last nine division games.
  • The Roughriders are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games coming off a SU win and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five contests following a SU victory.
  • Head-to-head in this West Division tilt, Winnipeg drew first blood in the season series with a 43-40 victory in overtime on July 1 as a 1.5-point road underdog. That was its fourth SU win in a row against Saskatchewan, and the total has gone OVER in six of the last eight meetings.

This Sunday matchup is destined to light up the scoreboard at Mosaic Stadium no matter which team walks away with the SU win. Bettors have been driving up the total line all week since it opened at 59 points, but it is still not high enough to discourage a play on the 'over.'

Free CFL Pick: 'Over' 61Best Line Offered: Bovada

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Edmonton Eskimos at Calgary Stampeders (-11, 54.5)

The rubber meets the road Monday for Edmonton coming off back-to-back losses to Winnipeg and Saskatchewan following that impressive 7-0 SU start. The Eskimos have been a very shaky betting team all season long at 3-6 ATS with a number of close calls against teams they should have beaten handedly. Mike Reilly has struggled throwing the ball in both of those losses, and he now has to face the best defense in the CFL on the road to try and end this slide.

Calgary is starting to assert itself as the class of the CFL for the second year in a row when it comes to regular-season play with a five-game winning streak that includes a profitable 4-0-1 run ATS. The Stampeders are averaging 33.1 PPG behind the passing of Bo Levi Mitchell and the running of Jerome Messam. They also boast the stoutest defense in the league with a points-allowed average of just 18.8 PPG.

  • The Eskimos have failed to cover ATS in eight of their last 11 West Division games and the total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games following a SU loss.
  • The Stampeders are a perfect 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 11 of the regular season and the total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in their last six September games.
  • Calgary has won seven of the last 10 meetings both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in the last three games between these two bitter division rivals.

At first this spread was a bit of a surprise given the fact that Edmonton is still just a half game off the pace in the West Division title race at 7-2, but Calgary’s dominance during its current winning streak is just too hard to ignore. I may be taking the oddsmakers’ bait, but I am laying the 11 points on Calgary to cover.

Free CFL Pick: Stampeders -11Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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