Cerrone to Hand Till First Loss at UFC Fight Night in Poland

cerrone till UFC

Andreas Hale

Thursday, October 19, 2017 3:42 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 19, 2017 3:42 PM UTC

The UFC heads to Poland for a Fight Night card with quite the intriguing main event as Darren Till puts his perfect record on the line against Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.

Saturday's UFC Fight Night bout in Gdansk, Poland, is a huge step up in competition for Darren Till, and he’s being thrown right into the fire against one of the busiest fighters in MMA, Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone in a welterweight showdown. It’s a very top heavy card for betting purposes as a majority of it features fighters from overseas whom the betting community may not be familiar with. But there’s definitely some value out there.

After Cerrone (32-9) opened as a -170 favorite, he has been trending downward and can be found right around -150. Meanwhile, Till (15-0) sits at +130. Although Till has shown a lot with his unbeaten record, the fascinating part is that Till has yet to face a quality name. And he’s stepping into the Octagon with a former title contender who has a penchant for violence.

Yes, Cerrone has lost two fights in a row. But those were against elite competition in former champion Robbie Lawler and the always dangerous Jorge Masvidal. Prior to those losses, Cerrone had won four fights in a row with four straight finishes. This is one of those lines that I absolutely cannot comprehend. Till shouldn’t be this small of a dog and Cerrone should be a significant favorite. Of course, UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby may know something we don’t. But there’s no reason why you shouldn’t bet on Cerrone. He’s a very competent striker with an underrated ground game. There are questions as to whether Cowboy has been in one too many wars. But he has been stopped before and known to go on a tear following a loss. That could start with Tiil.

Another fight that has some betting intrigue is the between featherweights Artem Lobov and Andre Fili. Lobov is in an interesting spot. He may be 2-3 in his last five fights, but he has proven to be a tough out. Fili, on the other hand, has been alternating wins and losses over the last eight fights. If the trend were to continue, Fili would end up with a victory this weekend.

The oddsmakers seem to agree, which is why Fili is a -160 favorite. Lobov has fallen from grace since the line opened when he was a +111, but he now sits at +140. I’m not trusting Fili in this fight and think that Lobov’s stalking style could end up giving him a decision. Fili is an exceptional striker, but the pressure of Lobov could end up breaking him down as the fight wears on. It’s another fight where the odds should be closer than what they are and, in that case, you have to go with the underdog.

Free UFC Pick: Cerrone -150Best Line Offered: Heritage

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