Record: 9-10-0 for -0.23 units
Cejudo In Explosive Win
UFC on ESPN+1 went well with our official plays going 1-1. Henry Cejudo cashes as a +170 underdog, but unfortunately Hernandez was not ready for the big lights and fails to win as a -190 favorite. Cejudo sure enough looked like the more explosive fighter in the cage and he came out hard, immediately putting TJ on his heels. TJ tends to be hittable in his fights but he always seems to recover. The speed that Henry poured strikes on him after TJ was rocked forced the referee to step in and stop the contest, potentially saving the flyweight division. However, Adrien Broner was able to dance his way past the 10.5 round mark and survive a really spotty round 7 to cash our over play on Saturday night’s boxing match just about digging us out of that hole that UFC 232 put us in.
Unfortunately for us Donald Cerrone showed up better than we have ever seen him on Saturday night and UFC Brooklyn. Alexander Hernandez pressured him early and everything looked like it was going to go our way, but Donald dug deep and found his range. He has been talking non-stop about making a run at the lightweight title and showing all the signs of an aging fighter who is about to hang it up, but he delivered and pulled off the upset against a very dangerous young future title contender. He has been campaigning for a fight with Conor McGregor for some time now and that fight would be straight fire.
McGregor-Khabib Rematch A Distant Dream
Conor McGregor is looking to get his hands on that new UFC belt that they unveiled for the fights last night and he wants the rematch with Khabib more than just about anything.
McGregor has a lot of pull in the UFC but coming off a solid loss to Khabib he has a bad argument for an immediate rematch against the champ besides the money it would make! Which, if we are being honest, is not a bad argument in this day and age of the UFC. Khabib is still tied up legally after the fiasco following his win over Conor so nobody is challenging for that belt any time soon and the list of lightweight contenders is LONG. It makes sense for the top 4 or 6 fighters to fight in the meantime to make a clear #1 contender stand out in Khabib’s absence and this is a perfect change for Conor to get back to that slot against a big named fan favorite in Cerrone. Cerrone gets a short path to the title if he wins and that fight will do gangbusters so the UFC and everybody involved gets a big fat paycheck. Cerrone vs Mcgregor is the fight to make.
February Is Coming
The UFC is all wrapped up for the month of January sadly, so there won’t be another event until February 2 when Raphael Assuncao takes on Marlon Moraes in another likely #1 contender fight to face TJ Dillashaw next at 135. Bellator is swooping in to give us some MMA to watch and bet on January 26 as they wrap up the Heavyweight Grand Prix! Ryan Bader the former UFC lightweight contender has taken the 205 pound strap in Bellator with relative ease and now he plans to win the heavyweight tournament by beating a legend in Fedor Emelianenko to become Bellator’s first ever 2 division champion.
Unfortunately at the time of writing there is no line out for anything other than the main event. Ryan Bader is a MASSIVE -380 favorite and the come back is Fedor +315 at 5Dimes and that line is unbettable. I personally think that Bader wins this fight and he does it inside the distance. Fedor is older and gases pretty quickly and Bader hasn’t so much a taken a single punch the entire tournament because his wrestling is THAT good, nobody can defend the take down long enough to hit him. I expect Bader to grind on Fedor until he gives up his neck and Bader chokes or pounds him out. HOWEVER, Fedor has also shown surprising speed and KO power in his return and that has always been Ryan Bader’s kryptonite.
When that line drops I will look for a ‘fight doesn’t go the distance’ prop or the under if its at the 3.5 or 4.5 mark. I do apologize for not having an official pick for you prior to the fight, but that is the way I will be looking once those lines drop later this week!