If the Cannons lose on Friday and the Chaos win, the Cannons’ only chance at the playoffs is score differential. Meanwhile, the Redwoods need to distance themselves from last place. Let’s examine the matchup in our Cannons-Redwoods picks.
The Cannons and Redwoods have only met once since the Cannons joined the PLL in 2021. The Cannons fell to the Redwoods 12-11 during their inaugural game at Gillette Stadium in what turned out to be a high-volume shooting contest with gutsy goaltending performances. Nick Marrocco recorded a 64% save percentage with a season-high 21 stops, and Tim Troutner registered a 63% save percentage with 19 saves.
Of course, a lot has changed since June 2021 for both teams.
For the Cannons, their leading point-getter in that matchup was midfielder Paul Rabil, and he’s now retired. Most of the Cannons’ offensive talent from that opening game, and especially their attack, is no longer with the team aside from Lyle Thompson and Ryan Drenner. Plenty of new faces are on their roster, with some added as recently as last weekend. Head coach Sean Quirk is working to find a group that gels best down the home stretch.
For the Redwoods, Jack Kelly is now the starting goalie over Troutner. While their roster has mostly remained the same aside from draft additions in Arden Cohen, Nakeie Montgomery, and Mitch Bartolo, the Woods aren’t showing the same confidence and swagger. That’s reflected in their 2-5 record.
With two teams desperate for a win, this game has all the makings of a playoff clash in Week 9 of the regular season.
Cannons vs. Redwoods Game Info
Date/Time: Friday, Aug. 5, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Barton Stadium, Denver, CO
Weather: 98 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, 11-mph wind
Cannons vs. Redwoods Odds Analysis
The Redwoods are the Moneyline favorites. Both DraftKings and BetMGM are offering them at -150. They’re -105 at both sportsbooks through the -1.5 goal line.
Both sportsbooks set the total at 24.5, with the Over and Under each paying out at -115.
Cannons vs. Redwoods Picks
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Cannons vs. Redwoods ML Pick
Not much has gone right for either of these teams in 2022. However, the Redwoods do possess some major advantages over the Cannons.
TD Ierlan has dominated Stephen Kelly at the faceoff stripe. Ierlan hasn’t been at his peak yet, and he’s just one percentage point ahead of Kelly at 52%. However, he’s won 30 of 44 faceoffs against Kelly for a 66.18% advantage.
Both offenses rank at the bottom of the league in transition, which will surely be a point of emphasis in this matchup. But despite some poor numbers, the Redwoods own the upper hand offensively in terms of on-field chemistry, which is critical in lacrosse.
Aside from Montgomery, Bartolo, and Joe Robertson, this Redwoods’ offense is the same group that they rolled with in 2021. This team has been successful when it’s moving fast, sharing the ball, and pushing hard in transition.
However, starting slow and gripping the sticks too tight has been the Redwoods’ offensive downfall. We’ve seen flashes of the vintage Woods’ offense in 2022. Now they need to get back to their game right away and come out firing.
For the Cannons, it’s not as easy. Aside from a show-stopping performance from Thompson every week and timely goals from Drenner, you don’t know what to expect from an offense that hasn’t found its groove yet.
Just last week the Cannons added Mark Cockerton and Chris Aslanian to their attack, and rookie Jonathan Donville has only played three games with them. Fellow first-year player Asher Nolting has been a big addition to the Cannons’ offense too. Overall, it’s just very hard for everything to click when you’re still feeling each other out as players and teammates.
However, the Cannons aren’t short on offensive catalysts. We just haven’t seen it all come together yet.
Cannons vs. Redwoods ATS Pick
Cannons +1.5 (-125)
It’s a desperate time for each squad. With that in mind along with the similar numbers these offenses are producing in 2022, I believe this contest will be close.
Cannons vs. Redwoods O/U Pick
Over 24.5 (-115)
I did consider the Under in this one because of Marrocco’s success against the Redwoods in 2021. But Kelly hasn’t faced much of this Cannons team, and both clubs are going to be playing with desperation. That’s enough reason to take the Over.
The Redwoods have made trying to take better shots a point of emphasis for the remainder of the season. But in a do-or-die atmosphere, both teams are going to be shooting and seeing what sticks.
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Cannons-Redwood picks from 8/5/2022 at 2:11 p.m. ET.